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Straight Knockout In SFC, Advantage Who?

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Replying To Whammo86:  "I want to point out that I'm not aiming to run down Cork or Kerry here. I'm just trying to give an honest analytical take on who I think it favours.

The bookies have Kerry at roughly 80% to win Munster. That's partly due to Kerry being very good and Cork being less good than they were in the early 2010s.

The effect I'm explaining is something like this.

Kerry are 80% to reach the All Ireland final.

Had it been last years system they'd have been say 98% to be in the Super 8s.

A likely group for Kerry in the Super 8s would've been something along the lines of say:

Dublin
Kerry
Mayo (Connacht Runners Up)
Monaghan (Ulster Runners Up)

With a group like that you'd say the chances of each team going through might be something along the lines of:

Dublin 90%
Kerry 50%
Mayo 30%
Monaghan 30%

(Adds up to 200% because 2 teams go through)

Kerry have only a 49% of qualifying to the semifinals overall.

The above would be a particularly hard group, there are shocks, not all the top teams make it through.

A group like Dublin, Kerry, Mayo, Armagh the chances night look something like this.

Dublin 95%
Kerry 70%
Mayo 30%
Armagh 5%

Rough illustrative figures.

Kerry with a group likes this are worse off with the Super 8 system than the straight knockout.

It's not Kerry's fault, I think the GAA have done a good job of organising the competitions in the circumstances but I just think it happens to help Kerry in the circumstances.

If Cork were a bit closer to Kerry then it'd be harder for Kerry.

If this had happened in 2012 for instance Kerry's chances would've been hurt by having no back door.

Kerry are definitely better than Tyrone or Donegal or Galway or Mayo in my opinion."
It's a very simplistic way of looking at things though. Momentum and getting competitive games can make a huge difference to a team. Look at the record of the Munster hurling champions in the All-Ireland semi-final over the past 7 years, I think they have been beaten in 6 of them. The Kerry lads coming from the teams that won the 5 All-Ireland minors in a row would probably benefit from playing as many big championship games as they can get, the Super 8s would have been a real help to them.

Soma (UK) - Posts: 2485 - 28/06/2020 11:56:43    2282113

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The circumstances around this year's championships (interruption to team preparation/ championship taking place in last quarter of the year in likely bad weather conditions/ straight knockout format) definitely make it more likely Dublin can be caught out this year.

bdbuddah (Meath) - Posts: 772 - 28/06/2020 12:39:42    2282117

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Replying To Soma:  "It's a very simplistic way of looking at things though. Momentum and getting competitive games can make a huge difference to a team. Look at the record of the Munster hurling champions in the All-Ireland semi-final over the past 7 years, I think they have been beaten in 6 of them. The Kerry lads coming from the teams that won the 5 All-Ireland minors in a row would probably benefit from playing as many big championship games as they can get, the Super 8s would have been a real help to them."
It's just to illustrate what I'm getting at, it's not fully realistic.

I think the idea of Kerry being better by having more games is probably true. It's impact is probably overstated though and it often forgets the fact that they've improved but were less likely to get there.

Some of the discussion on here is an example of survivorship bias. The eventual Ulster team that gets through will be better for having had hard games but Tyrone according to the bookies are only about 20% to win Ulster. Yes if they get through to play Dublin maybe their chance of beating Dublin goes from 15% if both were playing to 20% if they've improved along the way in Ulster. If you were Tyrone you'd much rather have an easy draw an be 80% to meet Dublin and 15% to beat them if you get there than be 20% to get there but be 20% to beat them once you're there.

In the first case they are 12% to get to the final, in the second case they're 4% to get to the final.

I think it's very hard to come up with realistic numbers that make having a harder draw an advantage.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 3121 - 28/06/2020 13:04:27    2282119

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Replying To bdbuddah:  "The circumstances around this year's championships (interruption to team preparation/ championship taking place in last quarter of the year in likely bad weather conditions/ straight knockout format) definitely make it more likely Dublin can be caught out this year."
I definitely think it's going to be more difficult. Poorer conditions will favour teams who like to stifle the opposition and slow the game down. It'll be a real leveller. You could afford to have an off day in the Super 8s and still win Sam. That luxury is now gone. A straight shootout will make things very interesting. Dublin will still be favourites but will have to be on their game every day, without one of their most potent weapons, the flying doctor.

Joxer (Dublin) - Posts: 4281 - 28/06/2020 13:36:41    2282125

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Fully expect Dublin to win every game in Leinster easily, by at least 5 points.

It will be interesting to see how their Leinster opponents approach the game though, as they don't have a second chance and moral victories to build confidence for a qualifier game won't be a factor

eoghan6688 (Galway) - Posts: 130 - 28/06/2020 14:58:31    2282133

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Replying To GeniusGerry:  "I love how people often omit cork from the list of teams in Munster when it suits them to run down the competition. Kerry often had to overcome a top 5 side in Cork before playing anybody outside Munster, and even Tipperary made a semi a few years ago beating the Connacht champions easily along the way. Clare were very near Div 1 status quite recently too. The competition is not half as weak as many like to make out.

The biggest advantage anybody will have in this competition as always will be playing all the big games including the final at home, albeit that may be diminished this year if there are no fans in the stands.

As for Donegal being better than Kerry, come off it. They played a good open game in Croker when both were missing a host of very important players, Kerry were missing their three top midfielders that day which is unprecedented as far as I can remember. Over the course of the competition it's laughable to claim Donegal were better, they imploded in Castlebar against a very beatable mayo. It may be different in 2020 but if so let's see it before making those kind of claims."
"kerry often had to overcome Cork". Sorry my heart isn't exactly melting for you here. Cork are a very good team but you'll see plenty of good teams in Ulster , not one every few years in Munster .

Stick yourself in an Ulster pre lim where you face a Monaghan team in Clones, a Donegal team in Ballybofey and a final with a fit and fresh Tyrone Armagh etc waiting for you.

While for the Donegal Kerry game last year, Kerry deserved to make the final based on all super 8 games. I know Kerry were missing Moran and JOD but we had Neil Mc Gee, Eoghan Ban, Jason Mc Gee, a one legged Mc Brearty playing !

Back to Cork, really think they are a team that are capable of something special, played some great fball and have some great players coming through.

TheRock2121 (Donegal) - Posts: 561 - 28/06/2020 15:09:13    2282135

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Replying To Joxer:  "I definitely think it's going to be more difficult. Poorer conditions will favour teams who like to stifle the opposition and slow the game down. It'll be a real leveller. You could afford to have an off day in the Super 8s and still win Sam. That luxury is now gone. A straight shootout will make things very interesting. Dublin will still be favourites but will have to be on their game every day, without one of their most potent weapons, the flying doctor."
If Dublin win two games they win the All Ireland. Am I missing something??

TheRock2121 (Donegal) - Posts: 561 - 28/06/2020 15:10:04    2282137

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Replying To TheUsername:  "Its a definite advantage to Dublin and Kerry - no point saying otherwise - i think its unfair on Connacht and Ulster.

The rotating Semi final, i know the logic behind it, i just think the GAA plumped for the pairing that kept Dublin and Kerry apart. The S8's if they continue next year should revert to Leinster and Munster Champions playing next year and not move on to next rotation.

There job is significantly easier, but i do think both could be beaten before a final, i wouldn't fancy taking someone like Galway on in a semi final this year and i definitely wouldn't be taking my eye of the ball preparing for Dublin in a final. These funny years often bring huge shocks, Dublin have a lot to prove under a new manager and they have looked well off their best in time, they me in transition and the loss of a player like Jack just compounds it, i think many are guilty of judging Dublin as "Jim Gavins Dublin", they wont be that and i expect us to move closer back into the pack and there could definitely be a "shock"."
Based on what's been done this year, when the S8s are restarted, presumably in 2021, it'll likely be with the groups that would be occurring on rotation for next year and not 2020. That's the precedent and it's likely to stick. What replaying 2017 has given the GAA is the most recent pre-S8 fixtures plan to condense, rather than having to start messing around making one up (and getting a lot of stick for it!).

On the footballing front, the absence of Jack Mc will be a relief to a lot of other managers. He always needs to be man marked and very few in the game have been effective keeping him fully occupied as a defender.

As regards where Kerry are at, who knows really. I don't think there's all that much between themselves and Galway... both have their classiest players high up the pitch and each line as you go back seems successively weaker. But that's based on what we've witnessed with Kerry in development and Galway pre-Joyce using a system to plaster over the chasms. One or both could be a different proposition defensively come the height of November. Galway will certainly be looking to go man for man - PJ's no man for defensive systems. There was always going to be some pressure on Kerry this year given they could have done it last year in the first game, and the winter reschedule won't alter that I think. But I expect both counties and the Dubs will be 3 of the last 4, within two games of Sam.

Pericles (Mayo) - Posts: 2202 - 28/06/2020 15:42:00    2282141

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Replying To Joxer:  "I definitely think it's going to be more difficult. Poorer conditions will favour teams who like to stifle the opposition and slow the game down. It'll be a real leveller. You could afford to have an off day in the Super 8s and still win Sam. That luxury is now gone. A straight shootout will make things very interesting. Dublin will still be favourites but will have to be on their game every day, without one of their most potent weapons, the flying doctor."
Agree on the Super 8 as it really hade none of the suspense of a knockout QF

Breezy (Limerick) - Posts: 1106 - 28/06/2020 16:09:39    2282143

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Replying To TheRock2121:  ""kerry often had to overcome Cork". Sorry my heart isn't exactly melting for you here. Cork are a very good team but you'll see plenty of good teams in Ulster , not one every few years in Munster .

Stick yourself in an Ulster pre lim where you face a Monaghan team in Clones, a Donegal team in Ballybofey and a final with a fit and fresh Tyrone Armagh etc waiting for you.

While for the Donegal Kerry game last year, Kerry deserved to make the final based on all super 8 games. I know Kerry were missing Moran and JOD but we had Neil Mc Gee, Eoghan Ban, Jason Mc Gee, a one legged Mc Brearty playing !

Back to Cork, really think they are a team that are capable of something special, played some great fball and have some great players coming through."
Of course Ulster is the toughest province. I never denied that, but you deliberately named the two weakest counties in Munster as if to say that is all Kerry have ever had to play, when Cork have more All Ireland's than all but three counties and would have had a lot more success over the years if Kerry weren't in their way year after year.

Going back to that game last year Kerry were missing JOD up front and Moran / Barry in midfield, and then Diarmuid O'Connor went off early with an injury so they had no midfielder at all left, predictably they struggled in the middle as a result. Yet all we heard afterwards was how Donegal would have won if they had their starters which was kind of bizarre under the circumstances.

On a wider point I don't get people lumping Connacht in in the same vein as Ulster as if it is some kind of fire-pit full of great teams. The games are often exciting and competitive but it's a small province that hasn't had an All Ireland champion in a long time. Mayo obviously have had a very good tram in recent years and should have utterly dominated there but haven't for some reason.

GeniusGerry (Kerry) - Posts: 1961 - 28/06/2020 16:11:02    2282144

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Replying To TheRock2121:  "If Dublin win two games they win the All Ireland. Am I missing something??"
I think they would have to win 5. Leinster Qtr, Semi, Final. AI semi and final.

Joxer (Dublin) - Posts: 4281 - 28/06/2020 16:25:30    2282147

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Replying To TheUsername:  "Its a definite advantage to Dublin and Kerry - no point saying otherwise - i think its unfair on Connacht and Ulster.

The rotating Semi final, i know the logic behind it, i just think the GAA plumped for the pairing that kept Dublin and Kerry apart. The S8's if they continue next year should revert to Leinster and Munster Champions playing next year and not move on to next rotation.

There job is significantly easier, but i do think both could be beaten before a final, i wouldn't fancy taking someone like Galway on in a semi final this year and i definitely wouldn't be taking my eye of the ball preparing for Dublin in a final. These funny years often bring huge shocks, Dublin have a lot to prove under a new manager and they have looked well off their best in time, they me in transition and the loss of a player like Jack just compounds it, i think many are guilty of judging Dublin as "Jim Gavins Dublin", they wont be that and i expect us to move closer back into the pack and there could definitely be a "shock"."
Good and very honest post! You're correct the GAA came up with a logic for choosing the semi final pairings by going back to the 2017 pairings and used that as their justiification. In a sense nobody can argue with their reasoning which would have been their aim however at the same time nobody could have argued if they'd decided to go for the 2020 All Ireland series pairings Ulst/Con and Lein/Muns. A decision was made to go with keeping Kerry and Dublin apart and looking at a reason to justify it.

A poster said no team will dominate the football like this Dublin team again and whilst I don't think they meant it as a compliment he was right. Leinster football has the potential to be very competitive and has been one of the best championships historically. The same cannot be said of the Munster championship which gives further credit to this great Dublin team over the last decade.

This isn't Jim Gavin's team and I do expect Dublin to fall back into the pack over the next 5 years; even in Leinster where I can see the likes of Kildare, Meath and Offaly eventually making it a great championship again. It won't be in 2020 though as to me this Dublin team will want to ensure they continue a legacy for the new set up; whilst we might start seeing personnel being replaced and the legends pulling back they'll easily get to the AL final again and likely win it.

It's great to see a fan from the most successful county over the last decade acknowledging the advantage Dublin and Kerry have this year; I think posters touch a nerve with Kerry posters as deep down they know the system has benefited them for years :)

sam1884 (UK) - Posts: 712 - 28/06/2020 16:41:46    2282148

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Replying To TheRock2121:  "If Dublin win two games they win the All Ireland. Am I missing something??"
It's 5 games for the Dubs to win Sam this year isn't it?

To be fair they've beaten every single opponent they've played in championship football since 2015 regardless of format so we all have to step up.

Htaem (Meath) - Posts: 8583 - 28/06/2020 16:58:38    2282151

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Replying To Byanthon:  "Not much advantage for Donegal v Tyrone meeting in PR of Ulster."
they don't meet in PR.....that's Mon v Cvn !

Monaghan Exile (Monaghan) - Posts: 400 - 28/06/2020 18:08:35    2282158

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I think the Championship should be an open draw between the 32 counties every year, straight knockout, that's what cup competitions should be anyway, it'll never happen though, no money in it.

Tirchonaill1 (Donegal) - Posts: 1076 - 28/06/2020 18:31:01    2282160

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Replying To sam1884:  "Good and very honest post! You're correct the GAA came up with a logic for choosing the semi final pairings by going back to the 2017 pairings and used that as their justiification. In a sense nobody can argue with their reasoning which would have been their aim however at the same time nobody could have argued if they'd decided to go for the 2020 All Ireland series pairings Ulst/Con and Lein/Muns. A decision was made to go with keeping Kerry and Dublin apart and looking at a reason to justify it.

A poster said no team will dominate the football like this Dublin team again and whilst I don't think they meant it as a compliment he was right. Leinster football has the potential to be very competitive and has been one of the best championships historically. The same cannot be said of the Munster championship which gives further credit to this great Dublin team over the last decade.

This isn't Jim Gavin's team and I do expect Dublin to fall back into the pack over the next 5 years; even in Leinster where I can see the likes of Kildare, Meath and Offaly eventually making it a great championship again. It won't be in 2020 though as to me this Dublin team will want to ensure they continue a legacy for the new set up; whilst we might start seeing personnel being replaced and the legends pulling back they'll easily get to the AL final again and likely win it.

It's great to see a fan from the most successful county over the last decade acknowledging the advantage Dublin and Kerry have this year; I think posters touch a nerve with Kerry posters as deep down they know the system has benefited them for years :)"
Are you living in 1995 Sam? Have a look at the roll of honour in Leinster. It has been dominated by Dublin save for a few periods where Offaly and Meath emerged with great teams, and Wexford many many years ago. It's not far off Munster / Kerry levels of dominance. The 'great' Leinster championship is a myth. It was competitive for a while but that time is long gone and not coming back.

For those too lazy to look it up Dublin have won it 58 times and it'll be 59 this year, and 60 the year after, three times their nearest rival Meath with 20. The competition is a farce at this stage, more so than Munster. At least Cork have a punchers chance this year.

I'd favour getting rid of the provincials entirely tbh as I think the format is not fit for purpose, and if nothing else it might stop all the whingeing and cheap shots aimed at Kerry from the likes of yourself, although probably not.

GeniusGerry (Kerry) - Posts: 1961 - 28/06/2020 18:37:05    2282162

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Replying To Tirchonaill1:  "I think the Championship should be an open draw between the 32 counties every year, straight knockout, that's what cup competitions should be anyway, it'll never happen though, no money in it."
Agreed. Overlap it with the league On alternate weekends and you'd have the ideal football season.

GeniusGerry (Kerry) - Posts: 1961 - 28/06/2020 18:48:50    2282163

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This year's format gives the likelihood of shock a probability, can't see Dublin or Kerry getting beaten in their provinces as they are both way ahead of best of the rest though Cork might be the most likely to be the surprise if there is one.
Galway and Donegal could be the other semifinalists and could potentially cause problems but it's hard to see past a repeat of last year's final though if there is to be a shock Galway might be the team to do it.
There is going to be a surreal atmosphere surrounding these games with the crowds, weather, time of year and format all different and it's going to be interesting to see how teams are going to adapt .
It'll be interesting.....

Galway4ever (Galway) - Posts: 134 - 28/06/2020 19:30:46    2282166

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Replying To Tirchonaill1:  "I think the Championship should be an open draw between the 32 counties every year, straight knockout, that's what cup competitions should be anyway, it'll never happen though, no money in it."
32 county open draw would be a joke. It's gotta be tiered otherwise half the teams might as well not enter

Breezy (Limerick) - Posts: 1106 - 28/06/2020 20:12:10    2282168

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Replying To Breezy:  "32 county open draw would be a joke. It's gotta be tiered otherwise half the teams might as well not enter"
Division 1-2 teams could play away in the first rounds to Div 3-4 and let the chips fall where they may after that.

Ultimately I think we should move towards the league being the premier competition anyway. It's a far better format and it's much easier to plan club competitions and for the players to plan their lives when they know what dates they will be playing.

GeniusGerry (Kerry) - Posts: 1961 - 28/06/2020 20:47:39    2282172

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