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Straight Knockout In SFC, Advantage Who?

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Replying To RoryGall35:  "In 2018 it was Donegal V Dublin in super eights as ulster and leinster champions, Last year it was Kerry v Donegal in super 8 as munster and ulster champions This year it has to be ulster v connaught champions in semi-final. Surely to god that's only fair. If the gaa set it up any other way then they have lost serious creditablitiy."
Thats how i was led to believe the all ireland was set up with the super 8s, each year each provincial winners would rotate
and this year the Ulster and Connaught champions were due to meet in super 8s so in simple terms how after a number of years has this been changed?
Has there been an official statement from the Gaa on how/why they have changed this?

Yourjoking (USA) - Posts: 525 - 27/06/2020 17:35:40    2282041

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Dublin Especially as they can try a few things out in Leinster with no offence meant to any other teams they will canter through the province.
Kerry will have a tough enough game away to Cork, if Cork can really go at them like against Dublin last year then just maybe they could surprise everyone but would still fancy kerry to come through it.

Other 2 provinces a number of teams could win them, would really depend on winners having a clean bill of health once the get to the semi final to see if they have a chance of getting to the final.

Yourjoking (USA) - Posts: 525 - 27/06/2020 17:44:07    2282042

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Replying To Yourjoking:  "Thats how i was led to believe the all ireland was set up with the super 8s, each year each provincial winners would rotate
and this year the Ulster and Connaught champions were due to meet in super 8s so in simple terms how after a number of years has this been changed?
Has there been an official statement from the Gaa on how/why they have changed this?"
The U20 football championship follows the old provincial format from 20 years ago and this year's U20 semifinals are Kerry v Galway and Tyrone V dublin so the provincial pairings are spot on for the senior championship in 2020.

KingdomBoy1 (Kerry) - Posts: 11772 - 27/06/2020 17:44:08    2282043

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Replying To Yourjoking:  "Thats how i was led to believe the all ireland was set up with the super 8s, each year each provincial winners would rotate
and this year the Ulster and Connaught champions were due to meet in super 8s so in simple terms how after a number of years has this been changed?
Has there been an official statement from the Gaa on how/why they have changed this?"
I'd been thinking along the same lines but they're reverting to the pairings as per 2017, which would have rotated to Munster/Connacht and Leinster/Ulster for 2020 had the super 8s never started. That's apparently the logic. If you suspect an agenda they could have kept with the super 8 pairings had the ones thrown up by the old system not been what they wanted. Academic at this point, the draw is fine.

Pericles (Mayo) - Posts: 2202 - 27/06/2020 18:17:34    2282045

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Replying To Pericles:  "I'd been thinking along the same lines but they're reverting to the pairings as per 2017, which would have rotated to Munster/Connacht and Leinster/Ulster for 2020 had the super 8s never started. That's apparently the logic. If you suspect an agenda they could have kept with the super 8 pairings had the ones thrown up by the old system not been what they wanted. Academic at this point, the draw is fine."
I didn't think there was any agenda against any province, just wasn't sure how these pairings came about.

Yourjoking (USA) - Posts: 525 - 27/06/2020 19:34:50    2282052

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Replying To Whammo86:  "Yeah, I think this system clearly benefits Kerry.

Dublin will be favourites still but Kerry will be closer due to the format than they would have been otherwise."
Dublin and Kerry were clearly the best 2 teams in the country last year, with Kerry a kick of the ball away from winning Sam. I don't know how you think the format means they will be closer this year than they would have been otherwise, they couldn't have been any closer last year and are a fairly young side that should be improving.
Dublin will probably have to beat 2 teams from Division 2 and a team from Division 1 to win Leinster this year, I don't think that will be much different a path than whatever team wins Ulster this year.

Soma (UK) - Posts: 2485 - 27/06/2020 20:09:02    2282056

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Replying To Soma:  "Dublin and Kerry were clearly the best 2 teams in the country last year, with Kerry a kick of the ball away from winning Sam. I don't know how you think the format means they will be closer this year than they would have been otherwise, they couldn't have been any closer last year and are a fairly young side that should be improving.
Dublin will probably have to beat 2 teams from Division 2 and a team from Division 1 to win Leinster this year, I don't think that will be much different a path than whatever team wins Ulster this year."
I didn't say I think they'll be closer.

I said I think the format improves their chances.

It's easier for them to make the semi-finals in this format.

Teams that do better in this format are teams that are less likely to need the back door (it also benefits Dublin I'd say).

Kerry are low odds to need the back door in a given season so they get more value out of not having to play the Super 8s to qualify than they lose to not having an opportunity of a second chance. They'd also have been in Dublin's group, so their group would likely be quite hard to get out of.

They're guaranteed avoiding Dublin before a final. It's improved their chances.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 3121 - 27/06/2020 21:18:19    2282065

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Replying To Whammo86:  "I didn't say I think they'll be closer.

I said I think the format improves their chances.

It's easier for them to make the semi-finals in this format.

Teams that do better in this format are teams that are less likely to need the back door (it also benefits Dublin I'd say).

Kerry are low odds to need the back door in a given season so they get more value out of not having to play the Super 8s to qualify than they lose to not having an opportunity of a second chance. They'd also have been in Dublin's group, so their group would likely be quite hard to get out of.

They're guaranteed avoiding Dublin before a final. It's improved their chances."
I'm fairly certain you said Kerry will be closer, you are usually one of the more sensible posters on here so was wondering what your thinking was. Kerry playing Dublin in the Super 8s this year could have been very helpful for them, they are a fairly young team who have to learn how to beat Dublin after all this time. A free shot at them in the Super 8s before they met again in the final if that's how it turned out could have been very helpful in their development. No matter what the format the general view seems to be that Kerry get it handy.

Soma (UK) - Posts: 2485 - 27/06/2020 22:01:58    2282068

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Replying To Soma:  "I'm fairly certain you said Kerry will be closer, you are usually one of the more sensible posters on here so was wondering what your thinking was. Kerry playing Dublin in the Super 8s this year could have been very helpful for them, they are a fairly young team who have to learn how to beat Dublin after all this time. A free shot at them in the Super 8s before they met again in the final if that's how it turned out could have been very helpful in their development. No matter what the format the general view seems to be that Kerry get it handy."
Yep nail on the head with the last sentence.

I think it's both hilarious and deeply disturbing.
You have so many people on here that try and latch at anything to degrade Kerry's success.

Oh sure they are given a Munster every year (Cork being the fourth most successful county in Gaelic football)

Oh sure they're a one code county like Kilkenny (to be honest I wouldn't even dignify any fool who said that with a response)

Etc etc etc

AND THEN ON THE OTHER HAND, you've a county, plumped from ineptitude, pumped with money, home advantage and whatever you like.
They dominate a sport to an extent the likes never seen.
And the same amadans who throw their bile at Kerry have no issue with what Dublin have been allowed achieve these past ten years.

I've always been a sceptic of human nature and things like this do nothing to challenge that ;)

TheHermit (Kerry) - Posts: 5838 - 27/06/2020 23:01:46    2282075

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Replying To Soma:  "I'm fairly certain you said Kerry will be closer, you are usually one of the more sensible posters on here so was wondering what your thinking was. Kerry playing Dublin in the Super 8s this year could have been very helpful for them, they are a fairly young team who have to learn how to beat Dublin after all this time. A free shot at them in the Super 8s before they met again in the final if that's how it turned out could have been very helpful in their development. No matter what the format the general view seems to be that Kerry get it handy."
Whammo did say Kerry will be closer, what ever that means, and he's usually a balanced poster except when its got to do with Kerry.

We got to the league and allireland finals last year with a very young team and we could have won both in fairness, if we get any closer this year we'll win both.

I agree having dublin in the 8s would have done our lads the world of good and to have them in thurles would have been better again, but they'll get 4 of their 5 games in Croker again this year where we'll potentially play 3 maybe 4 of our 4 games away if we get to the final.

People writing off Cork are being stupid and we won't be writing them off down here that's for sure.

KingdomBoy1 (Kerry) - Posts: 11772 - 27/06/2020 23:39:14    2282080

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Replying To Soma:  "I'm fairly certain you said Kerry will be closer, you are usually one of the more sensible posters on here so was wondering what your thinking was. Kerry playing Dublin in the Super 8s this year could have been very helpful for them, they are a fairly young team who have to learn how to beat Dublin after all this time. A free shot at them in the Super 8s before they met again in the final if that's how it turned out could have been very helpful in their development. No matter what the format the general view seems to be that Kerry get it handy."
I think what he is trying to say is that Kerry would have had two away games this year in the Super 8's if the year had transpired as most people expected, one genuine away game and a neutral game against Dublin in Croke park. If the 'real' away game had been against say Tyrone, Donegal, Mayo, Monaghan or Galway there is a very real chance that they'd be going home early. Thats a tricky group.

While Kerry won't be taking a trip to Cork for granted the new format does give Kerry a good chance of making the semi finals against the Connacht champions, on paper. The whole thing is a bit of a lottery beyond that after the long layoff, some teams may struggle to get back to fitness and form more than others, some games will be played in inclement conditions, lots of soft tissue non-contact injuries etc.

At the risk of sounding facetious the semi finals for Kerry and Dublin are prime ambush territory for the other provincial champions who may have had to raise their game a bit more before that. Dublin under Dessie Farrell and likely without Jack McCaffrey are an unknown quantity and Kerry are not very far ahead of the likes of Mayo or Galway in the first instance, if at all.

GeniusGerry (Kerry) - Posts: 1961 - 28/06/2020 01:09:13    2282084

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Replying To Soma:  "Dublin and Kerry were clearly the best 2 teams in the country last year, with Kerry a kick of the ball away from winning Sam. I don't know how you think the format means they will be closer this year than they would have been otherwise, they couldn't have been any closer last year and are a fairly young side that should be improving.
Dublin will probably have to beat 2 teams from Division 2 and a team from Division 1 to win Leinster this year, I don't think that will be much different a path than whatever team wins Ulster this year."
Wouldn't say clearly the best two teams at all. Dublin yes. Kerry, no. Stick the Kerry Mayo game in Castlebar and you get a different outcome, the beauty of the super 8s Cork came within a score of beating them and Donegal were better than them. We missed a heap of goal chances. Although not much in it.

In the final their 14 men barely drew with Dublin. Although the first half of the second game was great fball. Kerry are a coming team but not "clearly " ahead of the chasing pack at all.

TheRock2121 (Donegal) - Posts: 561 - 28/06/2020 02:57:20    2282086

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The advantage is with the teams who can aim to peak 4/5 weeks later than the rest. Ie. Dublin.

Can someone tell me with a straight face that Dessie F isn't planning on Tyrone /Donegal semi already.

Why would he not be ?

While Tyone/Dgal/Mon etc sludge through Ulster knocking lumps out of each other.

Don't give me the talk about Dublin not being game tested or ready for the intensity of the Ulster winner either. Kerry won many Sam playing Waterford and Limerick with all due respect

TheRock2121 (Donegal) - Posts: 561 - 28/06/2020 03:05:21    2282088

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Replying To Soma:  "I'm fairly certain you said Kerry will be closer, you are usually one of the more sensible posters on here so was wondering what your thinking was. Kerry playing Dublin in the Super 8s this year could have been very helpful for them, they are a fairly young team who have to learn how to beat Dublin after all this time. A free shot at them in the Super 8s before they met again in the final if that's how it turned out could have been very helpful in their development. No matter what the format the general view seems to be that Kerry get it handy."
A free shot at them in the Super 8s before they met again in the final if that's how it turned out could have been very helpful in their development. No matter what the format the general view seems to be that Kerry get it handy."

What more of a shot do you need than a replay. A replay after having an extra man for a fair portion of the first game. A pair of referees that gave you every chance and continuously do the same in Munster despite you having a huge advantage for over 100 years. Is it any wonder Munster remains a hurling stronghold.

catch22 (USA) - Posts: 1657 - 28/06/2020 08:43:15    2282090

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Replying To Soma:  "I'm fairly certain you said Kerry will be closer, you are usually one of the more sensible posters on here so was wondering what your thinking was. Kerry playing Dublin in the Super 8s this year could have been very helpful for them, they are a fairly young team who have to learn how to beat Dublin after all this time. A free shot at them in the Super 8s before they met again in the final if that's how it turned out could have been very helpful in their development. No matter what the format the general view seems to be that Kerry get it handy."
Sorry I did say closer, I was remembering what I meant by my message rather than the words I used.

I meant closer to being favourites for this season.

If Kerry are 30% to win in the normal format they're maybe say 35% to win in this format.

They're 2nd favourites regardless of the format and by a distance the second best team, I think this format gives them a small bump in their chance of winning.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 3121 - 28/06/2020 08:49:19    2282091

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Replying To KingdomBoy1:  "Whammo did say Kerry will be closer, what ever that means, and he's usually a balanced poster except when its got to do with Kerry.

We got to the league and allireland finals last year with a very young team and we could have won both in fairness, if we get any closer this year we'll win both.

I agree having dublin in the 8s would have done our lads the world of good and to have them in thurles would have been better again, but they'll get 4 of their 5 games in Croker again this year where we'll potentially play 3 maybe 4 of our 4 games away if we get to the final.

People writing off Cork are being stupid and we won't be writing them off down here that's for sure."
I am not unbalanced about Kerry.

I was cheering them in last years final.

I've said before I think it'll be the best thing for football if some team beats Dublin. I don't think 6/7/8 in a row is good for the game.

I do think some of the Kerry posters on here talk a lot of petty sh1te about Dublin.

Some of the Meath posters on here do too.

Meath is my second county, I'm married to a Meath woman but I'm going to call out a Meath man talking rubbish about Dublin on here too.

I forget his name but he used to always want to rotate Dublin into other provinces.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 3121 - 28/06/2020 08:55:05    2282092

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Replying To TheRock2121:  "The advantage is with the teams who can aim to peak 4/5 weeks later than the rest. Ie. Dublin.

Can someone tell me with a straight face that Dessie F isn't planning on Tyrone /Donegal semi already.

Why would he not be ?

While Tyone/Dgal/Mon etc sludge through Ulster knocking lumps out of each other.

Don't give me the talk about Dublin not being game tested or ready for the intensity of the Ulster winner either. Kerry won many Sam playing Waterford and Limerick with all due respect"
Hi sometimes the limerick and Waterford footballers gave us harder battles and better games than anything we got from ulster connacht and leinster and iv often heard it said that when we were winning allirelands in the 70s/80s that it was Cork who were the 2nd best team in Ireland and you could say semilar about Cork for a good bit of the noughties.

KingdomBoy1 (Kerry) - Posts: 11772 - 28/06/2020 09:06:29    2282093

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Replying To TheRock2121:  "The advantage is with the teams who can aim to peak 4/5 weeks later than the rest. Ie. Dublin.

Can someone tell me with a straight face that Dessie F isn't planning on Tyrone /Donegal semi already.

Why would he not be ?

While Tyone/Dgal/Mon etc sludge through Ulster knocking lumps out of each other.

Don't give me the talk about Dublin not being game tested or ready for the intensity of the Ulster winner either. Kerry won many Sam playing Waterford and Limerick with all due respect"
I love how people often omit cork from the list of teams in Munster when it suits them to run down the competition. Kerry often had to overcome a top 5 side in Cork before playing anybody outside Munster, and even Tipperary made a semi a few years ago beating the Connacht champions easily along the way. Clare were very near Div 1 status quite recently too. The competition is not half as weak as many like to make out.

The biggest advantage anybody will have in this competition as always will be playing all the big games including the final at home, albeit that may be diminished this year if there are no fans in the stands.

As for Donegal being better than Kerry, come off it. They played a good open game in Croker when both were missing a host of very important players, Kerry were missing their three top midfielders that day which is unprecedented as far as I can remember. Over the course of the competition it's laughable to claim Donegal were better, they imploded in Castlebar against a very beatable mayo. It may be different in 2020 but if so let's see it before making those kind of claims.

GeniusGerry (Kerry) - Posts: 1961 - 28/06/2020 09:41:39    2282096

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I want to point out that I'm not aiming to run down Cork or Kerry here. I'm just trying to give an honest analytical take on who I think it favours.

The bookies have Kerry at roughly 80% to win Munster. That's partly due to Kerry being very good and Cork being less good than they were in the early 2010s.

The effect I'm explaining is something like this.

Kerry are 80% to reach the All Ireland final.

Had it been last years system they'd have been say 98% to be in the Super 8s.

A likely group for Kerry in the Super 8s would've been something along the lines of say:

Dublin
Kerry
Mayo (Connacht Runners Up)
Monaghan (Ulster Runners Up)

With a group like that you'd say the chances of each team going through might be something along the lines of:

Dublin 90%
Kerry 50%
Mayo 30%
Monaghan 30%

(Adds up to 200% because 2 teams go through)

Kerry have only a 49% of qualifying to the semifinals overall.

The above would be a particularly hard group, there are shocks, not all the top teams make it through.

A group like Dublin, Kerry, Mayo, Armagh the chances night look something like this.

Dublin 95%
Kerry 70%
Mayo 30%
Armagh 5%

Rough illustrative figures.

Kerry with a group likes this are worse off with the Super 8 system than the straight knockout.

It's not Kerry's fault, I think the GAA have done a good job of organising the competitions in the circumstances but I just think it happens to help Kerry in the circumstances.

If Cork were a bit closer to Kerry then it'd be harder for Kerry.

If this had happened in 2012 for instance Kerry's chances would've been hurt by having no back door.

Kerry are definitely better than Tyrone or Donegal or Galway or Mayo in my opinion.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 3121 - 28/06/2020 10:38:26    2282106

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Replying To Whammo86:  "I want to point out that I'm not aiming to run down Cork or Kerry here. I'm just trying to give an honest analytical take on who I think it favours.

The bookies have Kerry at roughly 80% to win Munster. That's partly due to Kerry being very good and Cork being less good than they were in the early 2010s.

The effect I'm explaining is something like this.

Kerry are 80% to reach the All Ireland final.

Had it been last years system they'd have been say 98% to be in the Super 8s.

A likely group for Kerry in the Super 8s would've been something along the lines of say:

Dublin
Kerry
Mayo (Connacht Runners Up)
Monaghan (Ulster Runners Up)

With a group like that you'd say the chances of each team going through might be something along the lines of:

Dublin 90%
Kerry 50%
Mayo 30%
Monaghan 30%

(Adds up to 200% because 2 teams go through)

Kerry have only a 49% of qualifying to the semifinals overall.

The above would be a particularly hard group, there are shocks, not all the top teams make it through.

A group like Dublin, Kerry, Mayo, Armagh the chances night look something like this.

Dublin 95%
Kerry 70%
Mayo 30%
Armagh 5%

Rough illustrative figures.

Kerry with a group likes this are worse off with the Super 8 system than the straight knockout.

It's not Kerry's fault, I think the GAA have done a good job of organising the competitions in the circumstances but I just think it happens to help Kerry in the circumstances.

If Cork were a bit closer to Kerry then it'd be harder for Kerry.

If this had happened in 2012 for instance Kerry's chances would've been hurt by having no back door.

Kerry are definitely better than Tyrone or Donegal or Galway or Mayo in my opinion."
Its a definite advantage to Dublin and Kerry - no point saying otherwise - i think its unfair on Connacht and Ulster.

The rotating Semi final, i know the logic behind it, i just think the GAA plumped for the pairing that kept Dublin and Kerry apart. The S8's if they continue next year should revert to Leinster and Munster Champions playing next year and not move on to next rotation.

There job is significantly easier, but i do think both could be beaten before a final, i wouldn't fancy taking someone like Galway on in a semi final this year and i definitely wouldn't be taking my eye of the ball preparing for Dublin in a final. These funny years often bring huge shocks, Dublin have a lot to prove under a new manager and they have looked well off their best in time, they me in transition and the loss of a player like Jack just compounds it, i think many are guilty of judging Dublin as "Jim Gavins Dublin", they wont be that and i expect us to move closer back into the pack and there could definitely be a "shock".

TheUsername (Dublin) - Posts: 3677 - 28/06/2020 11:19:48    2282111

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