HoganStand GAA Football and Hurling

National Forum

Galway Football thread

(Oldest Posts First) - Go To The Latest Post

You need to Login to Post

Replying To timmyhogan: " Replying To PressureKick: "[quote=timmyhogan: ". I'm afraid your understanding of the prices is somewhat delusional - as indeed is the supposed claim that Mayo will definitely 100% beat Galway in a rematch by up to 10 points. They might beat them by more ;-) Or draw or lose. Most likely outcome is that the rematch won't happen - its about 16/1 give or take on a Rd2 rematch happening. On the price issue ; You can invent over excited fans from one county only if you wish but the bookies cant. Nor can the bookies assume that Mayo will avoid these 3 Ulster teams in the 1st round [4 chances in 7 that suddenly only exist as a threat to Galway in the R2 in your argument. Nor that Roscommon will beat Galway - Galway will be approx 1 / 2 in the Con Final. And the Connacht champs are 100% certain to be in a QF. 100% certain Nor indeed that Mayo will have it easy versus the Ulster runners up in Rd2 if they draw them. Thats before we get to the Kerry Dublin issue. That's not how bookmaking or indeed probability works. Other than that a very informative sensible post indeed." Good lord, so much gibberish in one post it's hard to know where to start A round 2 rematch with Mayo is circa 12.5/1 with zero margin pricing, not 16s. 1.25 Mayo to qualify from R1, by 2.7 Galway not to qualify from Connacht final, by 4.0 to draw in the open draw. How on earth did you come up with 16/1? Mayo have been PP's and Boyles biggest antepost loser in the book every season since 2014. this is because liabilities grow quicker in the 6s-12s range that Mayo have been, than say Dublin at much shorter or even Kerry. And as I said, no shortage of over excited and price insensitive fans. Both the PP and Boyles GAA traders are easy to find on twitter, they're both sound fellas and will have no issue confirming if you so wish im sure. They may be able to give you a further hand with where you're going wrong with your pricing above. I never assumed Ros would beat galway, where did you get that from? Neither did I say Mayo would have it easy versus the Ulster runnerup. If Mayo did meet one of Clare, Kildare, Ros and, say Donegal, in R2, that would be circa 1/6 100% price (v Clare to qualify), 4/9 (Kildare) 2/5 (Ros) and 5/6 (Donegal). 86%+69%+71%+55%=(281/400%)+1=1.7. So under 4/9 to qualify, so very very likely. Hope this helps"]. So much gibberish that you ignored the substantive point to concentrate on showing my throwaway "16/1 give or take" was actually 12 or 13/1. Even if we take as accurate your 1.25 (I don't ) on the 1st round that gives us 1.2534 which = 15 or 14/1. Or 1.434 if you want gives 15.8/1 It's not that complicated - it's a 16/1 shot give or take. Call it 12/1 or 18/1 or whatever. And further exposition on over excited fans etc and the bleedin' obvious. So yeah - your response was very helpful in that regard. My previous post stands. Enjoy the win and lets hope that 16/1 shot comes in! Coz in the unlikely event that Mayo get to meet and then beat the Ulster Champs in the QF - well something (recent history perhaps) tells me that Galway will manage to avoid facing them in the SF. But I would be very happy to be proven wrong on that one."]Honestly bud, you'd go fair broke if you were laying prices like 1.4 on Mayo to get through R1, pre draw. There'll likely only be 2 from 7 possibilities they'd be a bigger price to get past. Roscommon won't be 2s to win Connacht in a final v Galway either. They were 2.68 to win the D2 trophy. "It's not that complicated" gave me a good laugh, when you clearly haven't the foggiest idea what you're talking about I'd say the only recent history that's relevant is Galway winning last Sunday. If we want to talk about the distant past, Louth and Wexford must be players given they both have more All Ireland titles than Mayo PressureKick (UK) - Posts: 306 - 29/04/2022 11:12:58 2414016 Link
please post about Galway football . If you want to post about odds open a bookmakers thread and do us stupid posters who dont understand about odds and betting .Good luck to the Galway minors tonight against Sligo They look to be serious team this year Gaillimh abu fishpond (Galway) - Posts: 89 - 29/04/2022 15:41:48 2414075 Link
Replying To PressureKick: " Replying To timmyhogan: "[quote=PressureKick: "[quote=timmyhogan: ". I'm afraid your understanding of the prices is somewhat delusional - as indeed is the supposed claim that Mayo will definitely 100% beat Galway in a rematch by up to 10 points. They might beat them by more ;-) Or draw or lose. Most likely outcome is that the rematch won't happen - its about 16/1 give or take on a Rd2 rematch happening. On the price issue ; You can invent over excited fans from one county only if you wish but the bookies cant. Nor can the bookies assume that Mayo will avoid these 3 Ulster teams in the 1st round [4 chances in 7 that suddenly only exist as a threat to Galway in the R2 in your argument. Nor that Roscommon will beat Galway - Galway will be approx 1 / 2 in the Con Final. And the Connacht champs are 100% certain to be in a QF. 100% certain Nor indeed that Mayo will have it easy versus the Ulster runners up in Rd2 if they draw them. Thats before we get to the Kerry Dublin issue. That's not how bookmaking or indeed probability works. Other than that a very informative sensible post indeed." Good lord, so much gibberish in one post it's hard to know where to start A round 2 rematch with Mayo is circa 12.5/1 with zero margin pricing, not 16s. 1.25 Mayo to qualify from R1, by 2.7 Galway not to qualify from Connacht final, by 4.0 to draw in the open draw. How on earth did you come up with 16/1? Mayo have been PP's and Boyles biggest antepost loser in the book every season since 2014. this is because liabilities grow quicker in the 6s-12s range that Mayo have been, than say Dublin at much shorter or even Kerry. And as I said, no shortage of over excited and price insensitive fans. Both the PP and Boyles GAA traders are easy to find on twitter, they're both sound fellas and will have no issue confirming if you so wish im sure. They may be able to give you a further hand with where you're going wrong with your pricing above. I never assumed Ros would beat galway, where did you get that from? Neither did I say Mayo would have it easy versus the Ulster runnerup. If Mayo did meet one of Clare, Kildare, Ros and, say Donegal, in R2, that would be circa 1/6 100% price (v Clare to qualify), 4/9 (Kildare) 2/5 (Ros) and 5/6 (Donegal). 86%+69%+71%+55%=(281/400%)+1=1.7. So under 4/9 to qualify, so very very likely. Hope this helps"]. So much gibberish that you ignored the substantive point to concentrate on showing my throwaway "16/1 give or take" was actually 12 or 13/1. Even if we take as accurate your 1.25 (I don't ) on the 1st round that gives us 1.2534 which = 15 or 14/1. Or 1.434 if you want gives 15.8/1 It's not that complicated - it's a 16/1 shot give or take. Call it 12/1 or 18/1 or whatever. And further exposition on over excited fans etc and the bleedin' obvious. So yeah - your response was very helpful in that regard. My previous post stands. Enjoy the win and lets hope that 16/1 shot comes in! Coz in the unlikely event that Mayo get to meet and then beat the Ulster Champs in the QF - well something (recent history perhaps) tells me that Galway will manage to avoid facing them in the SF. But I would be very happy to be proven wrong on that one."]Honestly bud, you'd go fair broke if you were laying prices like 1.4 on Mayo to get through R1, pre draw. There'll likely only be 2 from 7 possibilities they'd be a bigger price to get past. Roscommon won't be 2s to win Connacht in a final v Galway either. They were 2.68 to win the D2 trophy. "It's not that complicated" gave me a good laugh, when you clearly haven't the foggiest idea what you're talking about I'd say the only recent history that's relevant is Galway winning last Sunday. If we want to talk about the distant past, Louth and Wexford must be players given they both have more All Ireland titles than Mayo"]Holy God. I know i contributed somewhat to this debate.. but im really sorry now with the amount of convoluted garbage that has ensued. Sorry all. anotheralias (Galway) - Posts: 1002 - 29/04/2022 20:41:21 2414094 Link
Very impressed with the Galway minor goalkeeper. Gilmore is it? Has a huge kick out and accurate as well. Was picking out Galway players past midfield. Big fella as well. Almost Begganesque. Marooned (Galway) - Posts: 2408 - 29/04/2022 20:48:34 2414095 Link
Galway minors looked seriously impressive at times tonight against Sligo, as they did against Roscommon. Another big win tonight. Some real talent rising there and management appear to have them very well prepared. Well done to all. togoutlads (Galway) - Posts: 1091 - 29/04/2022 21:22:22 2414099 Link
I blame myself; the square brackets messed up the quote feature & tommy k for quoting Spillane & some unknown guy on a podcast for upsetting a few Galway fans. So, I hear Leitrim have some new Roscommon guy in charge - will he do his native county a favour and upset the odds in the semi final in Salthill. timmyhogan (UK) - Posts: 290 - 30/04/2022 11:23:16 2414129 Link
Replying To togoutlads: "Galway minors looked seriously impressive at times tonight against Sligo, as they did against Roscommon. Another big win tonight. Some real talent rising there and management appear to have them very well prepared. Well done to all." I watched the game v Roscommon game again on the Connacht gaa site Andi have to say Galway played some wonderfull football I dont think Roscommon were a poor team they are very strong now at underage I think iits a case that this Galway team are a very good team We see game after game of teams hand passing back and over Galway minor team were well able to kick pass the ball at all times they look a very talented and well coached team It was a joy to see football like this played rhudson (Galway) - Posts: 1478 - 30/04/2022 14:04:58 2414168 Link
Replying To rhudson: "I watched the game v Roscommon game again on the Connacht gaa site Andi have to say Galway played some wonderfull football I dont think Roscommon were a poor team they are very strong now at underage I think iits a case that this Galway team are a very good team We see game after game of teams hand passing back and over Galway minor team were well able to kick pass the ball at all times they look a very talented and well coached team It was a joy to see football like this played" Looks like Galway have an excellent minor football team this year alright. We lost narrowly to Mayo last night but Mayo were very much the better team. Galway v Mayo minor final this year I'd expect with Galway to win it. endgame (Roscommon) - Posts: 2556 - 30/04/2022 14:59:35 2414180 Link
Replying To Marooned: "Very impressed with the Galway minor goalkeeper. Gilmore is it? Has a huge kick out and accurate as well. Was picking out Galway players past midfield. Big fella as well. Almost Begganesque." I said it earlier in the year, Kyle was excellent for St Jarlaths this year. This team has a number of players underage again next year including Cox, Gill, Coen, McGlinchey. GDL (Galway) - Posts: 864 - 30/04/2022 15:01:21 2414182 Link
Replying To endgame: "Looks like Galway have an excellent minor football team this year alright. We lost narrowly to Mayo last night but Mayo were very much the better team. Galway v Mayo minor final this year I'd expect with Galway to win it." A joy to watch is right, lovely football. Eanna Monaghan, Colm Costello and Shay McGlinchey look very impressive but then they all do, they're well balanced all over the field. I hope they keep and build on this momentum. togoutlads (Galway) - Posts: 1091 - 30/04/2022 16:53:04 2414216 Link
That was a fair old demolition job that the Rossies did on Sligo this evening in Markievicz. More than double scores, 18 points from play, 11 names on the Ros score sheet. Now it was against 14 men for most of it but still, that's some scoring on a damp evening. Had they been drawn against them, would Mayo have landed any more than 23 points against Sligo? I have my doubts. If, as expected, Galway are to to get past Leitrim, we're going to have to be nothing less than on fire for a Connacht final against these lads. They're scoring for fun at the moment and looking strong all over the field. Ask any lad from Ballinasloe, Ballygar, Glinsk or Glenamaddy how much the Rossies will want to stick one on us in Pearse. We better be ready for war. This will be at a higher tempo than McHale - with real silverware, a title on the line. And again not forgetting Leitrim to try and get past first. togoutlads (Galway) - Posts: 1091 - 30/04/2022 20:15:55 2414252 Link
Replying To togoutlads: "That was a fair old demolition job that the Rossies did on Sligo this evening in Markievicz. More than double scores, 18 points from play, 11 names on the Ros score sheet. Now it was against 14 men for most of it but still, that's some scoring on a damp evening. Had they been drawn against them, would Mayo have landed any more than 23 points against Sligo? I have my doubts. If, as expected, Galway are to to get past Leitrim, we're going to have to be nothing less than on fire for a Connacht final against these lads. They're scoring for fun at the moment and looking strong all over the field. Ask any lad from Ballinasloe, Ballygar, Glinsk or Glenamaddy how much the Rossies will want to stick one on us in Pearse. We better be ready for war. This will be at a higher tempo than McHale - with real silverware, a title on the line. And again not forgetting Leitrim to try and get past first." In fairness, Mayo did put 23 points on Sligo last time they played them and added 3 goals to that as well. That was last year, but it's still relevant. Mayo have dished out big hammerings to Sligo and Leitrim in recent years. In saying that Roscommon were impressive and they have a serious scoring threat, including from midfield. If we beat Leitrim, we know for sure that Roscommon will have no qualms about coming to Pearse Stadium and handing us a beating. We need to tear into them from minute one. The work-rate we showed in Castlebar will be absolutely needed again. WanPintWin (Galway) - Posts: 2460 - 03/05/2022 10:54:23 2414499 Link
Galway are hot favs with the bookies to win I dont see that at all no more than a 50-50 game If anyhting id have the Rossies as slight favs Pearse Stadium is allmost a happy hunting ground for them and their supporters Renember Mayo were a pale shadow of previous mayo teams They have been average to poor all year and we still allmost blew it at the end Only the very best peformance from Galway will beat Roscommon and for 70 mins plus at that rhudson (Galway) - Posts: 1478 - 03/05/2022 11:36:11 2414513 Link
to be fair lads sligo played with 14 men for practically 60 minutes.. roscommon would have won anyway.,no douth about it.. roscommon are well fancied for connacht and colm boyle tipped them sunday night to win it.. but first we need to beat leitrim.. the standards have ben set now by the lads on the field and they need to build on top of that now., need another strong solid performance to build confidence for the conn final if we win it... lets hope for no further injuries.. if shane isent right id keep him in reserve.. id love to see macloughlin make his debut.. maybe play fitzgerald full back and play kelly up the pitch or possibly sweeper if needed.. we might see mcdaid start at 10.,he needs a full game for fitness.. i think niall daly will start but at midfield along with conroy and move tierney to 11.. anybody no what the story is with flaherty? if he is fit id go with. 1.flaherty 2.glynn 3.fitzgerald 4.silke 5.mchugh 6.daly 7.molloy 8.N.daly 9.conroy 10.mcdaid 11.tierney 12.S.kelly 13.finnerty 14.comer 15.dessie subs., gleeson.,mcgrath.,sweeney.,gill.,p.,kelly.,heaney.,macloughlin.,shane.,tomo.,gallagher.,p kelly. gbay (Galway) - Posts: 277 - 03/05/2022 11:46:43 2414521 Link
Prediction for this weekend. Looks like sunny weather and I expect Andy Moran to foolishly play open brand of football. Both will allow Galway to win at their ease. Galway 4-20 Leitrim 1-10 Scorers for Galway: D Comer 2-2,Shane Walsh 1-6, J Heaney 1-1,P Conroy 0-3, R Finnerty 0-3, M Tierney 0-3,K Molloy 0-1,D Conneely 0-1 Leitrim for Leitrim: K Beirne 0-5,D Wrynn 1-1, R O Rourke 0-2,D Rooney 0-2 Gaa_lover (USA) - Posts: 3735 - 03/05/2022 14:39:46 2414613 Link
I wouldn't experiment much. Just tweak. Maybe Fitzgerald or McGlaughlin, if they are contenders for a place this year give them game time. I would try and nail down our system and work on KO strategy. No point in wholesale changes Mayonman (Galway) - Posts: 1928 - 03/05/2022 14:59:06 2414632 Link
Replying To Gaa_lover: "Prediction for this weekend. Looks like sunny weather and I expect Andy Moran to foolishly play open brand of football. Both will allow Galway to win at their ease. Galway 4-20 Leitrim 1-10 Scorers for Galway: D Comer 2-2,Shane Walsh 1-6, J Heaney 1-1,P Conroy 0-3, R Finnerty 0-3, M Tierney 0-3,K Molloy 0-1,D Conneely 0-1 Leitrim for Leitrim: K Beirne 0-5,D Wrynn 1-1, R O Rourke 0-2,D Rooney 0-2" Lord above, a predicted score and predicted scorers across both teams. A modern day Nostradamus! togoutlads (Galway) - Posts: 1091 - 03/05/2022 15:47:21 2414656 Link
Replying To gbay: "to be fair lads sligo played with 14 men for practically 60 minutes.. roscommon would have won anyway.,no douth about it.. roscommon are well fancied for connacht and colm boyle tipped them sunday night to win it.. but first we need to beat leitrim.. the standards have ben set now by the lads on the field and they need to build on top of that now., need another strong solid performance to build confidence for the conn final if we win it... lets hope for no further injuries.. if shane isent right id keep him in reserve.. id love to see macloughlin make his debut.. maybe play fitzgerald full back and play kelly up the pitch or possibly sweeper if needed.. we might see mcdaid start at 10.,he needs a full game for fitness.. i think niall daly will start but at midfield along with conroy and move tierney to 11.. anybody no what the story is with flaherty? if he is fit id go with. 1.flaherty 2.glynn 3.fitzgerald 4.silke 5.mchugh 6.daly 7.molloy 8.N.daly 9.conroy 10.mcdaid 11.tierney 12.S.kelly 13.finnerty 14.comer 15.dessie subs., gleeson.,mcgrath.,sweeney.,gill.,p.,kelly.,heaney.,macloughlin.,shane.,tomo.,gallagher.,p kelly." Ó Laoí not even on the match-day panel after starting the last day? The_DOC (Galway) - Posts: 811 - 03/05/2022 15:49:07 2414659 Link
Replying To togoutlads: "Lord above, a predicted score and predicted scorers across both teams. A modern day Nostradamus!" He needs to provide a predicted 500-word match report, if he wants to be taken seriously. WanPintWin (Galway) - Posts: 2460 - 03/05/2022 16:27:08 2414686 Link
Replying To togoutlads: "Lord above, a predicted score and predicted scorers across both teams. A modern day Nostradamus!" Don't think he'll be far off with that prediction to be fair. Yondu (UK) - Posts: 845 - 03/05/2022 18:11:12 2414731 Link