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One might observe that Baire seems to have less problems with, and an easier time 'rating', teams that don't win the big prize (Mayo footballers), than teams that do (Limerick hurlers). Pope_Benedict (Galway) - Posts: 4342 - 27/04/2022 14:51:02 2413652 Link 0 |
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I bow to the infallible one and his superior powers of observation!
baire (Galway) - Posts: 1849 - 27/04/2022 15:21:19 2413667 Link 0 |
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Pope, you have him/her in a nutshell there!
foreveryoung (USA) - Posts: 2352 - 27/04/2022 15:33:01 2413674 Link 0 |
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just watched the game back., gbay (Galway) - Posts: 277 - 27/04/2022 16:35:16 2413697 Link 0 |
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. I'm afraid your understanding of the prices is somewhat delusional - as indeed is the supposed claim that Mayo will definitely 100% beat Galway in a rematch by up to 10 points. They might beat them by more ;-) Or draw or lose. Most likely outcome is that the rematch won't happen - its about 16/1 give or take on a Rd2 rematch happening. On the price issue ; You can invent over excited fans from one county only if you wish but the bookies cant. Nor can the bookies assume that Mayo will avoid these 3 Ulster teams in the 1st round [4 chances in 7] that suddenly only exist as a threat to Galway in the R2 in your argument. Nor that Roscommon will beat Galway - Galway will be approx 1 / 2 in the Con Final. And the Connacht champs are 100% certain to be in a QF. 100% certain Nor indeed that Mayo will have it easy versus the Ulster runners up in Rd2 if they draw them. Thats before we get to the Kerry Dublin issue. That's not how bookmaking or indeed probability works. Other than that a very informative sensible post indeed. timmyhogan (UK) - Posts: 290 - 27/04/2022 17:06:31 2413706 Link 1 |
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In fairness Shane should have won one an all-star in 2018 instead of Ian Burke as he was very consistent in almost all Galway games that year. I would rate him up there with the likes of Clifford of Kerry and Clifford mainly stays in and around the full forward line to snipe scores etc. (which he is peerless at in fairness) whereas Shane is usually flying up and down the field taking on defenders, setting up / taking scores etc. He is definitely carrying a back injury as he was not at his flying best the last day but his first point from play showed he has lost none of his skills.
tommy k (Galway) - Posts: 3470 - 27/04/2022 19:24:27 2413729 Link 0 |
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Again, Galway score 1-14. Will need to up the scoring average big time from here on in. We've improved at creating goal chances - just need to be more ambitious and clinical in the finishing. Joyce Country Ceili Band is starting to rock.. AnCrúiscínLán (Galway) - Posts: 105 - 27/04/2022 21:28:32 2413746 Link 0 |
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that suddenly only exist as a threat to Galway in the R2 in your argument. Nor that Roscommon will beat Galway - Galway will be approx 1 / 2 in the Con Final. And the Connacht champs are 100% certain to be in a QF. 100% certain Nor indeed that Mayo will have it easy versus the Ulster runners up in Rd2 if they draw them. Thats before we get to the Kerry Dublin issue. That's not how bookmaking or indeed probability works. Other than that a very informative sensible post indeed."]Another very informed post but I have to contradict one of your points and defend the previous posters comment on the same point i.e. re over excited supporters influencing the betting market. You are 100% correct in your analysis re the draw and the probability that surrounds it Bookies will set their prices based on sound logic/probability theory . However if a particular outcome is set at , say , 10/1 and an inordinate amount of money is placed on this outcome , whilst the bookmakers may still believe that the probability has not changed they do have to control their risk by reducing the price ( odds). In some cases , they may even set the initial odds lower than they believe are in line with probabilities , based on a knowledge of previous betting trends in order to pre-empt and better manage exposure to the above risk. anotheralias (Galway) - Posts: 1002 - 28/04/2022 08:53:23 2413757 Link 0 |
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that suddenly only exist as a threat to Galway in the R2 in your argument. Nor that Roscommon will beat Galway - Galway will be approx 1 / 2 in the Con Final. And the Connacht champs are 100% certain to be in a QF. 100% certain Nor indeed that Mayo will have it easy versus the Ulster runners up in Rd2 if they draw them. Thats before we get to the Kerry Dublin issue. That's not how bookmaking or indeed probability works. Other than that a very informative sensible post indeed."]Good lord, so much gibberish in one post it's hard to know where to start A round 2 rematch with Mayo is circa 12.5/1 with zero margin pricing, not 16s. 1.25 Mayo to qualify from R1, by 2.7 Galway not to qualify from Connacht final, by 4.0 to draw in the open draw. How on earth did you come up with 16/1? Mayo have been PP's and Boyles biggest antepost loser in the book every season since 2014. this is because liabilities grow quicker in the 6s-12s range that Mayo have been, than say Dublin at much shorter or even Kerry. And as I said, no shortage of over excited and price insensitive fans. Both the PP and Boyles GAA traders are easy to find on twitter, they're both sound fellas and will have no issue confirming if you so wish im sure. They may be able to give you a further hand with where you're going wrong with your pricing above. I never assumed Ros would beat galway, where did you get that from? Neither did I say Mayo would have it easy versus the Ulster runnerup. If Mayo did meet one of Clare, Kildare, Ros and, say Donegal, in R2, that would be circa 1/6 100% price (v Clare to qualify), 4/9 (Kildare) 2/5 (Ros) and 5/6 (Donegal). 86%+69%+71%+55%=(281/400%)+1=1.7. So under 4/9 to qualify, so very very likely. Hope this helps PressureKick (UK) - Posts: 306 - 28/04/2022 08:59:00 2413758 Link 0 |
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Another very informed post but I have to contradict one of your points and defend the previous posters comment on the same point i.e. re over excited supporters influencing the betting market. You are 100% correct in your analysis re the draw and the probability that surrounds it Bookies will set their prices based on sound logic/probability theory . However if a particular outcome is set at , say , 10/1 and an inordinate amount of money is placed on this outcome , whilst the bookmakers may still believe that the probability has not changed they do have to control their risk by reducing the price ( odds). In some cases , they may even set the initial odds lower than they believe are in line with probabilities , based on a knowledge of previous betting trends in order to pre-empt and better manage exposure to the above risk."]Dont know why some of the original post that I was replying to rendered itself in my reply. Below is my text: Another very informed post but I have to contradict one of your points and defend the previous posters comment on the same point i.e. re over excited supporters influencing the betting market. You are 100% correct in your analysis re the draw and the probability that surrounds it. Bookies will set their prices based on sound logic/probability theory . However if a particular outcome is set at , say , 10/1 and an inordinate amount of money is placed on this outcome , whilst the bookmakers may still believe that the probability has not changed they do have to control their risk by reducing the price ( odds). In some cases , they may even set the initial odds lower than they believe are in line with probabilities , based on a knowledge of previous betting trends in order to pre-empt and better manage exposure to the above risk. anotheralias (Galway) - Posts: 1002 - 28/04/2022 09:53:49 2413775 Link 0 |
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Shane sent Oisin Mullen for a burger after 10 seconds, worth watching again.. Belclare (Galway) - Posts: 904 - 28/04/2022 10:58:30 2413806 Link 2 |
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He should indeed have won one in 2018. However, the truth is he'd almost certainly have multiple all-stars if we had managed to reach the semi-finals more regularly or a couple of finals. Players from these teams pick up individual awards like sweets. They're then used as a measure of player status, such as 4-time all-star, when in reality they're often as a result of being part of a very good team. If we were to truly pick the best players in the country every year (an almost impossible task anyway), the spread of teams represented would be much greater. WanPintWin (Galway) - Posts: 2460 - 28/04/2022 11:09:34 2413811 Link 1 |
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Galway always have potential. Great tradition and large player pool to pick from. But like everything it goes in cycles . You don't stay at the top forever. That's the frustrating thing from our point of view. Should really have won at least one all Ireland over the past decade. Can only blame ourselves. The Galway man who was shouting at us leaving Pearse in 2013 saying Galway will win Sam before Mayo do again could well be right. yew_tree (Mayo) - Posts: 11706 - 28/04/2022 12:59:15 2413843 Link 0 |
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Good lord, so much gibberish in one post it's hard to know where to start A round 2 rematch with Mayo is circa 12.5/1 with zero margin pricing, not 16s. 1.25 Mayo to qualify from R1, by 2.7 Galway not to qualify from Connacht final, by 4.0 to draw in the open draw. How on earth did you come up with 16/1? Mayo have been PP's and Boyles biggest antepost loser in the book every season since 2014. this is because liabilities grow quicker in the 6s-12s range that Mayo have been, than say Dublin at much shorter or even Kerry. And as I said, no shortage of over excited and price insensitive fans. Both the PP and Boyles GAA traders are easy to find on twitter, they're both sound fellas and will have no issue confirming if you so wish im sure. They may be able to give you a further hand with where you're going wrong with your pricing above. I never assumed Ros would beat galway, where did you get that from? Neither did I say Mayo would have it easy versus the Ulster runnerup. If Mayo did meet one of Clare, Kildare, Ros and, say Donegal, in R2, that would be circa 1/6 100% price (v Clare to qualify), 4/9 (Kildare) 2/5 (Ros) and 5/6 (Donegal). 86%+69%+71%+55%=(281/400%)+1=1.7. So under 4/9 to qualify, so very very likely. Hope this helps"]. So much gibberish that you ignored the substantive point to concentrate on showing my throwaway "16/1 give or take" was actually 12 or 13/1. Even if we take as accurate your 1.25 (I don't ) on the 1st round that gives us 1.25*3*4 which = 15 or 14/1. Or 1.4*3*4 if you want gives 15.8/1 It's not that complicated - it's a 16/1 shot give or take. Call it 12/1 or 18/1 or whatever. And further exposition on over excited fans etc and the bleedin' obvious. So yeah - your response was very helpful in that regard. My previous post stands. Enjoy the win and lets hope that 16/1 shot comes in! Coz in the unlikely event that Mayo get to meet and then beat the Ulster Champs in the QF - well something (recent history perhaps) tells me that Galway will manage to avoid facing them in the SF. But I would be very happy to be proven wrong on that one. timmyhogan (UK) - Posts: 290 - 28/04/2022 13:27:44 2413858 Link 0 |
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And therein lies the point. If we by any stretch win the Connacht championship and his good form continues to that point Paul Conroy should be a nailed on all star. But you will find unless we progress to a semi final at minimum he won't be in the running although his form up to a point in the season would have been outstanding in that scenario.
kiloughter (Galway) - Posts: 1992 - 28/04/2022 14:08:40 2413881 Link 0 |
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Very true - instead of all-stars it should be called best players from the AI semi-final / final teams.
tommy k (Galway) - Posts: 3470 - 28/04/2022 14:21:40 2413883 Link 0 |
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https://open.spotify.com/episode/3l0iq55BFoVYyFnkTXj0Qm?si=8A5ts34bRj65bPFTuj2qlA&nd=1
giveitlong (Galway) - Posts: 1291 - 28/04/2022 14:55:15 2413898 Link 0 |
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Another very informed post but I have to contradict one of your points and defend the previous posters comment on the same point i.e. re over excited supporters influencing the betting market. You are 100% correct in your analysis re the draw and the probability that surrounds it Bookies will set their prices based on sound logic/probability theory . However if a particular outcome is set at , say , 10/1 and an inordinate amount of money is placed on this outcome , whilst the bookmakers may still believe that the probability has not changed they do have to control their risk by reducing the price ( odds). In some cases , they may even set the initial odds lower than they believe are in line with probabilities , based on a knowledge of previous betting trends in order to pre-empt and better manage exposure to the above risk."]Dont know why some of the original post that I was replying to rendered itself in my reply. Below is my text: Another very informed post but I have to contradict one of your points and defend the previous posters comment on the same point i.e. re over excited supporters influencing the betting market. You are 100% correct in your analysis re the draw and the probability that surrounds it. Bookies will set their prices based on sound logic/probability theory . However if a particular outcome is set at , say , 10/1 and an inordinate amount of money is placed on this outcome , whilst the bookmakers may still believe that the probability has not changed they do have to control their risk by reducing the price ( odds). In some cases , they may even set the initial odds lower than they believe are in line with probabilities , based on a knowledge of previous betting trends in order to pre-empt and better manage exposure to the above risk."]. No aa - what you state re general bookmaking practice could be termed the bleedin' obvious but does nothing to support the delusional claim that Mayo are shorter than Galway in the AI betting (despite Galway having an easier path currently) because over excited betting fans exist in Mayo only. In fact the most recent pricing tactic aimed at over excited fans I've seen was when PP shortened Galway from 18/1 or 20/1 to 12/1 after they hammered Derry. But when I checked their Connacht champo odds they were unchanged - perhaps these layers momentarily thought that Galway would sail thru the qualifiers ;-) A couple of days later Galway were out to 18/1 again. The bookies have their ways! Anyway best of luck against the Rossies & Leitrim. timmyhogan (UK) - Posts: 290 - 28/04/2022 16:03:41 2413916 Link 0 |
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1-14 (17) is a more than decent total against Division 1 opposition so long as things are kept tight at the other end of field.
Gaa_lover (USA) - Posts: 3735 - 28/04/2022 16:50:44 2413925 Link 0 |
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Hope so. It seems as if he is carrying a back injury for a good few weeks which is clearly holding him back.
galwayman2 (Galway) - Posts: 1325 - 28/04/2022 19:06:26 2413952 Link 0 |