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Replying To Commodore: "It's an internationally backed agreement, the UK's and the NI Secretary would draw significant heat Nationally and Internationally if seen to be blocking the terms agreed despite clear evidence showing a Nationalist majority in elections and the next Census. At the moment there isn't a clear majority, but that is about to change in the next 4-9 years." Census doesn't ask how you'd vote in a referendum.
Seanfan (Roscommon) - Posts: 602 - 30/05/2026 12:47:14
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Replying To BarneyGrant: "I posted a more detailed response that hasn't appear.
Yes, it is vague but I recall clearly at the time that it was understood that the main criteria for it "appearing" to the NI Sec would be election results.
That is the most obvious and was assumed that it would reflect the expected demographic shift. It hasn't.
The combined pro unity 'nationalist' vote has barely moved since 1998. It has averaged around 40% consistently. SF know this very well as they signed up to it and were telling their own people that was what it meant.
In fact they were telling people that "Brits will be gone by 2000/five years/ten years/2016....." Still here." The demographics are changing, while the Nationalist growth definitely slowed in the last 20 years, that isn't where the biggest shift is occurring. The Unionist population have a large majority over the age of 65 right now, but there is 20% swing for the next 40 years under that.
That is a huge population swing, we are not talking about 51% majority, we could be looking at a 60% plus Nationalist majority within another 15-20 years.
Commodore (Donegal) - Posts: 1863 - 30/05/2026 12:47:53
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Replying To Seanfan: "There are no criteria laid down in the GFA other than "appears to the Sec of State" which is a real beauty in the eye of the beholder type of thing." Ireland has suffered criminal mis-management under FF and FG for decades, because there has been no checks and balances to address the wasting of public money, which in some cases has to be criminal. Think Mother & baby homes, Tuam Septic tanks, Larry Goodman bailouts, Anglo Irish Bank books, Bicycle sheds, Childrens hospital. Anti-Israel at home, pro-Israel in the EU parliament, failing to address hospital needs. Keeping a bloated inefficient public sector to maintain Government support and letting career criminals with 100s of convictions off constantly, to terrorize the vulnerable all over the Country and strain already limited Gardai resources.
Hardcore FF/FG supporters keep them in power no matter what they do, despite the excessive waste and corruption etc and failures to address front line services, helping to block victims of abuse get proper compensation from the RC church, nominating Unionists to the Irish Senate, the same ones who spit at the North-South Irish council. Pretending a new speed camera in Mayo wasn't calibrated, to avoid backlash from 3000 voters in a Government TD stronghold.
Ireland needs a change and needs to prosecute those responsible for these crimes against our people.
Commodore (Donegal) - Posts: 1863 - 30/05/2026 13:05:42
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Replying To Commodore: "It's an internationally backed agreement, the UK's and the NI Secretary would draw significant heat Nationally and Internationally if seen to be blocking the terms agreed despite clear evidence showing a Nationalist majority in elections and the next Census. At the moment there isn't a clear majority, but that is about to change in the next 4-9 years." Can it be taken as a given that the majority of any nationalist majority in NI would vote in favour of a United Iteland ?
Freethinker (Wicklow) - Posts: 2269 - 30/05/2026 13:48:28
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Replying To Commodore: "Ireland has suffered criminal mis-management under FF and FG for decades, because there has been no checks and balances to address the wasting of public money, which in some cases has to be criminal. Think Mother & baby homes, Tuam Septic tanks, Larry Goodman bailouts, Anglo Irish Bank books, Bicycle sheds, Childrens hospital. Anti-Israel at home, pro-Israel in the EU parliament, failing to address hospital needs. Keeping a bloated inefficient public sector to maintain Government support and letting career criminals with 100s of convictions off constantly, to terrorize the vulnerable all over the Country and strain already limited Gardai resources.
Hardcore FF/FG supporters keep them in power no matter what they do, despite the excessive waste and corruption etc and failures to address front line services, helping to block victims of abuse get proper compensation from the RC church, nominating Unionists to the Irish Senate, the same ones who spit at the North-South Irish council. Pretending a new speed camera in Mayo wasn't calibrated, to avoid backlash from 3000 voters in a Government TD stronghold.
Ireland needs a change and needs to prosecute those responsible for these crimes against our people." I think you will find the " Tuam Septic Tanks" was a bit of wishful thinking by the usual suspects.
tireoghainabu (Tyrone) - Posts: 470 - 30/05/2026 14:20:21
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Replying To Freethinker: "Can it be taken as a given that the majority of any nationalist majority in NI would vote in favour of a United Iteland ?" Yes.
tireoghainabu (Tyrone) - Posts: 470 - 30/05/2026 14:20:48
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Replying To Commodore: "Ireland has suffered criminal mis-management under FF and FG for decades, because there has been no checks and balances to address the wasting of public money, which in some cases has to be criminal. Think Mother & baby homes, Tuam Septic tanks, Larry Goodman bailouts, Anglo Irish Bank books, Bicycle sheds, Childrens hospital. Anti-Israel at home, pro-Israel in the EU parliament, failing to address hospital needs. Keeping a bloated inefficient public sector to maintain Government support and letting career criminals with 100s of convictions off constantly, to terrorize the vulnerable all over the Country and strain already limited Gardai resources.
Hardcore FF/FG supporters keep them in power no matter what they do, despite the excessive waste and corruption etc and failures to address front line services, helping to block victims of abuse get proper compensation from the RC church, nominating Unionists to the Irish Senate, the same ones who spit at the North-South Irish council. Pretending a new speed camera in Mayo wasn't calibrated, to avoid backlash from 3000 voters in a Government TD stronghold.
Ireland needs a change and needs to prosecute those responsible for these crimes against our people." Jases you're an expert on everything!!
Seanfan (Roscommon) - Posts: 602 - 30/05/2026 14:22:41
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Replying To Commodore: "Ireland has suffered criminal mis-management under FF and FG for decades, because there has been no checks and balances to address the wasting of public money, which in some cases has to be criminal. Think Mother & baby homes, Tuam Septic tanks, Larry Goodman bailouts, Anglo Irish Bank books, Bicycle sheds, Childrens hospital. Anti-Israel at home, pro-Israel in the EU parliament, failing to address hospital needs. Keeping a bloated inefficient public sector to maintain Government support and letting career criminals with 100s of convictions off constantly, to terrorize the vulnerable all over the Country and strain already limited Gardai resources.
Hardcore FF/FG supporters keep them in power no matter what they do, despite the excessive waste and corruption etc and failures to address front line services, helping to block victims of abuse get proper compensation from the RC church, nominating Unionists to the Irish Senate, the same ones who spit at the North-South Irish council. Pretending a new speed camera in Mayo wasn't calibrated, to avoid backlash from 3000 voters in a Government TD stronghold.
Ireland needs a change and needs to prosecute those responsible for these crimes against our people." So, how do you recommend that we educate this obviously stupid electorate of ours and deliver you the government which you think will right all these wrongs ?? All suggestions welcome.
Freethinker (Wicklow) - Posts: 2269 - 30/05/2026 15:18:32
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Replying To Seanfan: "Jases you're an expert on everything!!" Thank you. With a little bit of guidance, you could move beyond one liners some day and become enlightened to what is holding Ireland back.
Commodore (Donegal) - Posts: 1863 - 30/05/2026 15:42:55
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Replying To Commodore: "Thank you. With a little bit of guidance, you could move beyond one liners some day and become enlightened to what is holding Ireland back." Holding Ireland back?????
Seanfan (Roscommon) - Posts: 602 - 30/05/2026 16:14:29
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Replying To Commodore: "The demographics are changing, while the Nationalist growth definitely slowed in the last 20 years, that isn't where the biggest shift is occurring. The Unionist population have a large majority over the age of 65 right now, but there is 20% swing for the next 40 years under that.
That is a huge population swing, we are not talking about 51% majority, we could be looking at a 60% plus Nationalist majority within another 15-20 years." There should be no vote. We voted for 32 Republic in 1918.
You don't negogtiate with burglars.
BarneyGrant (Dublin) - Posts: 4344 - 30/05/2026 19:11:16
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