Seamus the original query of the thread is a good one. I will be voting in favour of AV however I dont think it will have a major impact on electoral results in the North. Having said that I think the 'No to AV' vote will succeed in preventing any change.

I think artisan mentioned the boundary changes, this will definitely have a much larger impact if it is carried out.

Goodfella, Tir (None) - Posts: 1652 - 27/04/2011 10:51:49    919003

i cant see why people take offense when i say i could care less what happens in the politics of foreign countries like northern ireland- should i be interested? is has nothing to do with ireland afterall

liathroidboy (Mayo) - Posts: 4921 - 27/04/2011 10:58:19    919010

As for plebiscite...are you saying there will be a vote on Irish unity in the next 10 years?

Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement the secretary of the state must call a referendum on the constitutional position of the North when it appears there may be a majority in favour of reunification. Given that in the North there a regular elections, Westminister, Assembly, EU etc, there will be numerous occasions when it will become clear that Nationalists are edging ever closer to the magic 50% mark. Therefore it is probably is realistic to see such a referendum having to be called in about 10 years time. If the Secretary of State fails to call a referendum then any party to the agreement can approach the European courts to rule that a referendum should be held as the GFA is enforceable through international law.

The important point to remember is that once the first referendum is called then another referendum must be held every 7 years. Therefore the intial vote may reject a United Ireland but in 7 years time another vote will have to be held and so on.

In reality what is going to happen is a referendum will be called every 7 years until the British and Irish governments get the result they want, a United Ireland. The Brits can leave honourably and the Irish government can say that Unionists werent forced into a United Ireland but rather the will of the people prevailed.

Goodfella, Tir (None) - Posts: 1652 - 27/04/2011 11:04:31    919019

Thanks Goodfella, I never said such a referendum would pass first time but what will happen is that Unionists will be brought into an open discussion about an UI in which some might come to release there isn't much to fear. Anyone who reads the GFA and doesn't come to the conclusion that it is a transitionary process towards reunification is either very short sighted or in a state of denial.

The only thing open for debate here is the timescale, I feel 10-20 years. I say this because right now we've got joint authority over the north, the brits won't book a flight to Belfast without running it past Dublin first. The British have all but disengaged in terms of political interference, the Downing Street declaration fought for by Albert Reynolds was a public declaration of intent to withdraw, from that moment on we've been heading in one direction.

In the last 6 months alone, I've seen the south invest just under 2 billion in the north's infrastructure (despite a recession), I've seen FG pledge to extend the Presidential franchise to the north, and moves are now well under way to harmonise tax rates across the island. With that in mind I'd say a lot could change in 15 years.

My apologises for going off on a tangent - back to AV !

artisan (Down) - Posts: 1794 - 27/04/2011 12:46:42    919118

I could rip Artisan's feeble argument to shreds but I feel sorry for him if he genuinely believes there will be re-unification in 10 - 20 years. The GFA simply copper-fastened the UK's hold on the North but gave Republicans like himself false hope that they may live to see a united Ireland. The only way re-unification can happen is if a significant proportion of Unionists decide they want it. This won't happen for generations, if at all. We were born under British rule, we'll die under British rule

pplocal (Tyrone) - Posts: 5878 - 27/04/2011 12:58:59    919141

The only way re-unification can happen is if a significant proportion of Unionists decide they want it.

Not in any way true.

Under the Good Friday agreement the only thing that is required is a simple 51% majority in favour of reunification in the referendum. Legally it wont matter what proportion of Unionists are against it if they are in the minority overall. Sorry to burst your bubble.

Goodfella, Tir (None) - Posts: 1652 - 27/04/2011 13:15:46    919167

Not even 51% Goodfella, 50% + 1 will do the job.

I get confused when I hear some unionist politicians stating the importance of unionist consent, that the majority of unionists as opposed to the majority of the people must vote for reunification. Surely by definition anyone who votes in favour of reunification is not an unionist and thus unionists can always claim the majority of them are against, not just a majority but 100% of them !

I'm no fan of Jim Allister but I agree with his interpretation of the GFA.

http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/local/we_re_drifting_into_a_united_ireland_jim_allister_1_1866695

artisan (Down) - Posts: 1794 - 27/04/2011 13:45:20    919200

The constitutional status of Northern Ireland is not even debatable until 2025. I have it on good info that a review of the status is to be undertaken by the IRISH government in that year. We should hopefully be out of recession by then, and be ready to take back what is rightfully ours. Anyway by 2025 the unionist people will be so used to living under SF, living under FG/Lab or whoever it is will be a sinch.....Id imagine thats the plan anyway.

Sergeant_Slash (Cavan) - Posts: 2182 - 27/04/2011 13:48:51    919205

I'm well aware of how a vote works Goodfella, thanks for the reminder though. My point is that you're assuming all Catholics would vote yes to re-unification and as such when Catholics become the majority it is inevitable that it will happen. This clearly isn't the case, it ranges depending on what you look at but I've never saw this figure above 75%. Given that a sizeable minority of Catholics don't want re-unification this would have to be made up by a sizeable minority of Unionists voting yes. It will take generations for this to happen

pplocal (Tyrone) - Posts: 5878 - 27/04/2011 13:56:12    919211

Honestly Artisan, Jim Allister? I'm afraid you've you've lost the plot when you have to roll out that scaremongering dinosaur

pplocal (Tyrone) - Posts: 5878 - 27/04/2011 13:57:54    919213

lads the majority of ye have totally missed the point if 51% or even 100% of the north wanted a united ireland it is only the vote of the people of the south that actually count. republicans in the north have seriously lost the plot as they just think a 51% majority = a united ireland, when nothing could be further from the truth- you have to convinve unionists that a united ireland is in their interest (which ye refuse to do and just assume they can be bullied into accepting it) and you alo have to convince the people of the south to vote to allow you become part of ireland. so the buck stops with the republican people of the north- start sucking up to the unionists and the people of the south- as through two refferendums they will decide your fate- this is lost on most republicans the think they have some moral right to be accepted in the south and that the people of the north should agree with them- in the cold light to day this is a very niave perspective and the only persepctive worth its salt is the legal one. 51% vote in favour in the north will convince noone in the south that its a good idea- ye need about 90% support in the north before th epeople of ireland would even consider it- and ye are generations away from your objectives as republican refuse to face up to what both the unionist people of the north and the people of ireland want. unionists are happy with the status que, ye want change and to achieve change ye must atone for your mistakes - alas ye are not ready to do that and still play the lame victim card which continues to fool noone. if republicans want a united ireland its get on e your hands and knees for a full generation and only then you may be listen to because at present ye are only strengthening the devide.

liathroidboy (Mayo) - Posts: 4921 - 27/04/2011 13:59:22    919215

Sergeant_Slash
County: Cavan
Posts: 455

919205
The constitutional status of Northern Ireland is not even debatable until 2025. I have it on good info that a review of the status is to be undertaken by the IRISH government in that year. We should hopefully be out of recession by then, and be ready to take back what is rightfully ours. Anyway by 2025 the unionist people will be so used to living under SF, living under FG/Lab or whoever it is will be a sinch.....Id imagine thats the plan anyway.

-------

I think in the next 2-3 years at most, we will see the creation of an all ireland investment ministry which will market a 32 county ireland to the business world. Thats why we're equalizing the corporation tax rate across the island. It makes sense in every way, come 2025 we will be very close to a single irish economy. 2 things have to happen, the south has to tell the germans to prop up their own banks & the north has to develope its private sector.

artisan (Down) - Posts: 1794 - 27/04/2011 14:05:36    919222

PomeroyPlunkett
County: Tyrone
Posts: 3022

919213
Honestly Artisan, Jim Allister? I'm afraid you've you've lost the plot when you have to roll out that scaremongering dinosaur

---------

Are the head of the church of scotland, the former head of ruc special branch, leaders of the uda, several dozen high ranking british & american politicians and diplomats scaremongering dinosaurs ?

There is no scaremongering here, when the debate begins in earnest as we approach end game it will be done in a very open and relaxed fashion.

artisan (Down) - Posts: 1794 - 27/04/2011 14:19:45    919241

My point is that you're assuming all Catholics would vote yes to re-unification and as such when Catholics become the majority it is inevitable that it will happen

I am not assuming anything. When Nationalists (not Catholics) become the majority, which they will be in the very near future, then constitutional change is enevitable. I think Sergeant_Slash mentioned 2025 as a date when the matter may be reviewed by the Southern government. I think this is realistic though perhaps anytime from 2020 onwards the pressure for change will begin to build in earnest.

Goodfella, Tir (None) - Posts: 1652 - 27/04/2011 14:55:24    919273

i think you have to accept also goodfella that a united ireland is dependent on the will of the people of the republic and we will ultimately decide what to do with ye and it is 100% our choice and not yours- i will like all right minded people vote No to an referendum on uniting ireland as its simply bad for business and at the end of the day that is all that matters

liathroidboy (Mayo) - Posts: 4921 - 27/04/2011 15:04:57    919284

It depends if you define Nationalist as voting for a Nationalist party or wanting a united Ireland. People may vote for the SDLP, it doesn't mean they want unity. So while Nationalist parties may in the future get more votes than their Unionist counterparts it's very naive to expect 100% of these voters to vote for re-unification. The figure probably sits somewhere between 60% - 75%. Artisan for every person who thinks a united Ireland is imminent there's many more who think it isn't. Those people you speak of say a united Ireland is inevitable and I'd agree with that. It's the time frame you're using that I find ludicrous

pplocal (Tyrone) - Posts: 5878 - 27/04/2011 15:18:01    919294

So while Nationalist parties may in the future get more votes than their Unionist counterparts it's very naive to expect 100% of these voters to vote for re-unification. The figure probably sits somewhere between 60% - 75%

So your argument is people who vote for pro-United Ireland parties wont actually vote for a United Ireland themselves. Strange logic you have there and i'd love to know where you came up with the 60-75% statistic that 'supports' your argument !!

Goodfella, Tir (None) - Posts: 1652 - 27/04/2011 17:25:10    919406

tisan
County: Down
Posts: 681

919241
PomeroyPlunkett
County: Tyrone
Posts: 3022

919213
Honestly Artisan, Jim Allister? I'm afraid you've you've lost the plot when you have to roll out that scaremongering dinosaur

---------

Are the head of the church of scotland, the former head of ruc special branch, leaders of the uda, several dozen high ranking british & american politicians and diplomats scaremongering dinosaurs ?

There is no scaremongering here, when the debate begins in earnest as we approach end game it will be done in a very open and relaxed fashion.
_____________________________
What the hell has any of this got to do with the church of scotland, shouldn't they be trying to do something about poison running through the very core of their own country?

brendtheredhand (Tyrone) - Posts: 10897 - 27/04/2011 21:02:11    919523

We were born under British rule, we'll die under British rule
-------------------------------
This would clearly be your wish so stop with the pretense of being a nationalist.

seanie_boy (Tyrone) - Posts: 4235 - 27/04/2011 21:11:34    919536

Is it really? Every political party in the North is against Abortion for example so are you saying that over 90% of the N.I. public as a whole is against abortion? It's very rare that someone agrees with every single policy of the party that vote for and re-unification is way down the list in terms of importance for most people, especially in the middle of a recession. The large number of Protestants who voted for Margaret Ritchie are for a united Ireland in your view as well then? I know people, myself included, who voted for Nationalist parties yet if a referendum on re-unification was held tomorrow would vote No. These figures are from various polls because most people realise voting for Nationalist parties doesn't necessarily mean you want re-unification, in the same way there's probably a small number of people who voted for Unionist parties but may want re-unification. If you honestly think that it's as simple as saying if you vote SDLP you'd vote Yes you are very much mistaken. Feel free to provide your own figures though Goodfella

pplocal (Tyrone) - Posts: 5878 - 27/04/2011 21:52:41    919563