I've been keeping an eye on the referendum campaign, and it's been interesting to see the Tories and Lib Dems tear each other to pieces over it. But I haven't heard much about it in the North. In Britain, most people say the introduction of AV would be detrimental to the Tories future prospects. But what effect would it have on Northern politics? Would there be more Unionists in the Commons? More Nationalists? More Alliance members?

What do the Nordies on here think of AV, and how will yee be voting, if it's not too bold to ask?

Seamus89 (Kilkenny) - Posts: 3848 - 26/04/2011 09:20:10    918365

who cares about british politics in all fairness

liathroidboy (Mayo) - Posts: 4921 - 26/04/2011 10:19:32    918395

liathroidboy pretty childish comment really, however whether you like it or not British politics is quite important in this country as it has a big bearing on Northern Ireland and British/Irish governmental relationships.

gilly0512 (Galway) - Posts: 1176 - 26/04/2011 11:04:57    918430

liathroidboy
County: Mayo
Posts: 2747

918395
who cares about british politics in all fairness


Your right, Irish people have absolutely no interest in British politics or anything else British.
Irish people don't follow British football teams, don't watch British soaps, don't watch British news channels.

I think it's fair to say that Irish people don't care about anything British

Dr.Shephard (Leitrim) - Posts: 2187 - 26/04/2011 11:07:19    918433

liathroidboy pretty childish comment really, however whether you like it or not British politics is quite important in this country as it has a big bearing on Northern Ireland and British/Irish governmental relationships.

--------------

sorry gilly but northern ireland politics is british politics and again as i said earlier its irrelevant in ireland. british ireh relations are great and have being for years they are our biggest trading partner and that wont change regardless of who is in their governmenet therefore if the conservative the dup, labour, sinn fein or any other british parties are in government means very little for ireland- sorry to burst your bubble but its true.

liathroidboy (Mayo) - Posts: 4921 - 26/04/2011 11:33:07    918465

I'm interested in hearing the opinions of the Northerners on here ballboy, so stay quiet.

Seamus89 (Kilkenny) - Posts: 3848 - 26/04/2011 13:04:07    918546

oh yea seamus whatever you say.... yawn!

liathroidboy (Mayo) - Posts: 4921 - 26/04/2011 13:45:10    918583

northern ireland politics is british politics and again as i said earlier its irrelevant in ireland

ballboy everybody on this site knows what sort of opinions you have at this stage so why do you continue to repeat the same aul crap everytime someone starts a thread you dont agree with.

yew_tree (Mayo) - Posts: 11647 - 26/04/2011 14:03:42    918611

Seamus89
County: Kilkenny
Posts: 1431

918546
I'm interested in hearing the opinions of the Northerners on here ballboy, so stay quiet.
__________________________
oooh you go girl!

Now then Seamus, allow me, we in the North have been using the PR system since the 1970's, local elections, assembly elections and European elections, its only westminster that first past the post. There are currently 18 constituencies which would have to be amalgamated into super constituencies, eg West Tyrone and Foyle, Mid Ulster and Fermanagh S. Tyrone, Newry and Armagh with South Down. How this would translate into seats under AV is hard to tell, generally the constituencies west of the Bann would net the largest number of nationalist MP's whilst the east of the Bann is more populous and has the majority unionist population. With AV, it may balance things out in either side, although if you listen to patrique, then tactical voting may skew the picture slightly.

Hope this helps seamus, its a good question.

brendtheredhand (Tyrone) - Posts: 10897 - 26/04/2011 16:19:43    918709

26/04/2011 09:20:10
Seamus89
County: Kilkenny
Posts: 1431

Would there be more Unionists in the Commons?


They do not have ANYONE there at present so any gain would be progress. How the mighty are fallen.

I will be voting YES as it gives a balanced look to proceedings, well a bit more balanced as it is not full PR.

patrique (Antrim) - Posts: 13709 - 26/04/2011 16:37:29    918724

patrique
County: Antrim
Posts: 12349

918724
26/04/2011 09:20:10
Seamus89
County: Kilkenny
Posts: 1431

Would there be more Unionists in the Commons?


They do not have ANYONE there at present so any gain would be progress. How the mighty are fallen.

I will be voting YES as it gives a balanced look to proceedings, well a bit more balanced as it is not full PR.




It is not PR at all in any form. It is not possible to use a PR system in a single seat constituency.

Dr.Shephard (Leitrim) - Posts: 2187 - 26/04/2011 18:08:39    918774

you got to feel a little sorry for Muammar Gaddafi and Laurent Gbagbo being a Dictator is no longer a Job for life

Gaddafi was one of the first to introduce AV alternative voting system One man one vote I am the Man and I have the vote .

fortyfive (Tyrone) - Posts: 5929 - 26/04/2011 18:30:30    918786

26/04/2011 18:08:39
Dr.Shephard
County: Leitrim
Posts: 2071




It is not PR at all in any form. It is not possible to use a PR system in a single seat constituency.



Thank you Doctor, as someone who used to teach A level politics I know that. I was trying to reach out to the common man/woman by simplifying matters.

And it is based on proportion.

The Alternative Vote (AV) is very much like First-Past-the-Post (FPTP). Like FPTP, it is used to elect representatives for single-member constituencies, except that rather than simply marking one solitary 'X' on the ballot paper, the voter has the chance to rank the candidates on offer.
The voter thus puts a '1' by their first-preference candidate, and can continue, if they wish, to put a '2' by their second-preference, and so on, until they don't care anymore or they run out of names. In some AV elections, such as most Australian elections, electors are required to rank all candidates.
If a candidate receives a majority of first-preference votes (more people put them as number one than all the rest combined), then they are elected.
If no candidate gains a majority on first preferences, then the second-preference votes of the candidate who finished last on the first count are redistributed. This process is repeated until someone gets over 50 per cent.


Cheers.

patrique (Antrim) - Posts: 13709 - 26/04/2011 19:06:31    918806

I listened to a discussion on this topic on talksport recently.

Apparently if one went back and applied AV to every British general election since WW2, not a single election result would have been different - not one.

Yes the numbers would have changed but the winning party would still win, not one government would be changed. This is all about the Lib Dems gaining 20-30 seats under AV, besides that very little would change.

As far as the north goes, unionists are against and nationalists are in favour. In the real world it would have minimal impact on the north. The proposed electoral boundary changes are of much greater importance, nationalists will effectively be the very clear majority in the north's 2 leading cities - Derry and Belfast.

artisan (Down) - Posts: 1794 - 26/04/2011 19:36:34    918822

Does this AV increase or decrease Jedwards chances in the Eurovision ?

ruanua (Donegal) - Posts: 4966 - 26/04/2011 19:51:10    918834

Artisan

I understood Derry was 80% Catholic, and that Belfast was about 50/50. Has that changed? The Census will be out soon, so that will be interesting to see.

Seamus89 (Kilkenny) - Posts: 3848 - 26/04/2011 20:32:08    918855

Seamus

Derry has been nationalist since one man one vote. Westminster is introducing electoral boundary changes in an attempt to equalise the number of voters in every constituency, this will lead to boundary changes and a reduction of 2 MP's for the north. The proposed changes in Belfast will give nationalists a clear majority, roughly 60%, together with a possible 50-50 split in MP's across the 6 counties.

In addition to this, local government districts will be reduced to about half their current number. Sinn Fein will lead every local district council west & south of the bann. Taking into consideration the numbers SF now have in Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal - SF will be the leading party in Ulster by a distance, using european funding to merge education and health resources and eradicating the border in practical and real world terms.

As regards the census, I didn't take part for several reasons, but there is no doubt we are approaching 50-50, I expect a plebiscite within 10 years.

artisan (Down) - Posts: 1794 - 26/04/2011 21:12:44    918876

In addition to this, local government districts will be reduced to about half their current number. Sinn Fein will lead every local district council west & south of the bann. Taking into consideration the numbers SF now have in Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal - SF will be the leading party in Ulster by a distance, using european funding to merge education and health resources and eradicating the border in practical and real world terms.

As regards the census, I didn't take part for several reasons, but there is no doubt we are approaching 50-50, I expect a plebiscite within 10 years.

I'm no friend of Sinn Fein Artisan, but I am in favour of re-unification. Nevertheless, I think you're being a tad unrealistic here.

There will probably be some closer integration in those areas, but the Unionists will not allow there to be some massive rush to cross border policy making. The GFA was designed to allow some cross-border cooperation, but SF's hopes that there would be a 'spillover' effect haven't materialised thus far, and I can't see it happening anytime soon. Priorities in the South are very, very different to what they used to be.

As for plebiscite...are you saying there will be a vote on Irish unity in the next 10 years? Lunacy, Artisan. It would lose by 60% to 40%, and that's being generous to the nationalist side. I'd love to see a United Ireland, but it won't happen in the next 20 years, no chance. It should be the highest priority of all Irish Republicans, we should all work towards it in whatever way we can, but none of use should be so naive to think it can be achieved in a short space of time.

Seamus89 (Kilkenny) - Posts: 3848 - 26/04/2011 21:26:17    918887

A survey 3 years ago put the percentage in favour of a United Ireland at 18%. Artisan thinks this figure will triple in ten years. You can only laugh at such idiocy

pplocal (Tyrone) - Posts: 5878 - 26/04/2011 21:32:19    918890

PomeroyPlunkett
County: Tyrone
Posts: 3018

918890
A survey 3 years ago put the percentage in favour of a United Ireland at 18%. Artisan thinks this figure will triple in ten years. You can only laugh at such idiocy.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A survey conducted in your own house with your ma and da and your brothers and sisters as the participants does not hold much sway on this forum.It is also a poor indicator of the opinions of the people all over the island of Ireland. Tiocfaidh ar la!!!! Ye quisling ye!!!

seanie_boy (Tyrone) - Posts: 4235 - 27/04/2011 10:01:01    918967