National Forum

All Ireland Football Championship 2025

(Oldest Posts First) - Go To The Latest Post


Replying To legendzxix:  "Well you would have the occasional dead rubber of a team on 2 wins already group winners and their opponent without a win already eliminated, but as the other group game throwing in at the same time would have 2nd v 3rd in a shootout - the dead rubber of 2 wins v 2 losses is just collateral damage and can be largely ignored."
Assuming we stick to the current structure

Chat GPT calculates the following probability of a dead rubber in the last round

Tiered seeding based on league finish (12 & 16 in Pot C/D) ~15-20%
Modified seeding due to provincial finalist anomaly (12 & 16 in Pot B) ~8-12%

All of the above is based on two teams advancing rather than 3.
Strangely, having Clare and Meath seeded higher than they ought to be (if seeded based on league placing) lowers the probability of a dead rubber because

1. Weaker teams playing against higher seeds earlier (as second seeds) have more chances to gain points.
2. Stronger teams (7 & 8) now in Pot C have a tougher path but also can prevent one-sided blowouts.
3. More balanced groups → more competitive final matches.

It then states that:
1. This reshuffling (placing weaker teams in pot B) makes the group stage more unpredictable.
2. It's a neat way to reduce dead rubbers without changing the fixed match schedule.
3. It may also increase excitement and fairness in the group stage.

Interestingly, it reduces the probability of a dead rubber to 7-8% if you get 3 points for a win.

So in summary, we already have the best structure to avoid final day dead rubbers
1. Part of the reason for that is having Meath and Clare seeded higher than they would have been in a league based seeding (creating two strong groups and two weaker groups).
2. If we remove the prelim quarter final and introduce 3 points for a win, we still only have only a 7-8% chance of getting a dead rubber in the last round of matches.


However, we have now binned this structure - we won't know how good we had it until its gone.

tirawleybaron (Mayo) - Posts: 1412 - 26/05/2025 16:17:46    2612804

Link

Ah sure look it, the double eliminator can't have dead runners anyway. The drawback for some will be no home games but maybe that is the carrot of making provincial finals for home advantage in Round 1 or winning in Round 1 to guarantee at least home advantage in Round 3. Home advantage in Rounds 2A and 2B is by luck of the draw.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 8860 - 26/05/2025 16:47:18    2612815

Link

Replying To legendzxix:  "In proper groups of 4 where 2 advance, it is better that Round 1 winners play each other in Round 2. In this bizarre format of 3 from 4 advancing, it is actually better that Round 1 winners play each other in Round 3.
Group 1: Cavan 2, Tyrone 2, Donegal 0, Mayo 0.
Tyrone and Cavan clash in Round 3. The group cannot be won and noone can be eliminated until after Round 3.
Group 2: Kerry 2, Meath 2, Cork 0, Roscommon 0.
Kerry and Meath meet in R3. The group cannot be won and noone can be eliminated until after Round 3.
Group 3: Down 2, Monaghan 2, Louth 0, Clare 0.
Monaghan and Down play each other in R3. The group cannot be won and noone can be eliminated until after Round 3.
Group 4: Armagh 2, Dublin 2, Galway 0, Derry 0.
Armagh and Dublin clash in Round 2. Galway and Derry in the other game.
- Armagh and Derry wins eliminate Galway. Armagh win the group with a round to spare.
- Dublin and Galway wins eliminate Derry. Dublin win the group with a round to spare."
From reading this it would appear that when the 2 winners from the 1st round of group games meet in the 3nd round of games then all 4 teams have something to play for. Excellent work. Would not have been aware of this scenario . It would need the 2nd and 3nd round of group fixtures not to be set until after the 1st round. Does a draw [or 2] in a 1st round group change the above dynamic in any way?

edu (Mayo) - Posts: 105 - 26/05/2025 17:17:34    2612830

Link

Replying To edu:  "From reading this it would appear that when the 2 winners from the 1st round of group games meet in the 3nd round of games then all 4 teams have something to play for. Excellent work. Would not have been aware of this scenario . It would need the 2nd and 3nd round of group fixtures not to be set until after the 1st round. Does a draw [or 2
in a 1st round group change the above dynamic in any way?"]If it was agreed that round 1 winners would play in round 3 in the current system, if there is a draw in round 1 - the higher seed should take the place of match winner for round 3.
In the 2019 Super 8s after Round 2:
Kerry 3
Donegal 3
Mayo 2
Meath 0
Round 3: Meath v Kerry and Mayo v Donegal.
If 3 advanced, Meath were already eliminated after losing to Mayo in Round 2. Kerry and Donegal had drawn. Meath couldn't catch both Kerry and Donegal, and lost the head to head against Mayo. If Mayo and Meath had drawn, both are still in the championship where 3 advance.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 8860 - 26/05/2025 21:01:58    2612904

Link