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Alliance hope there is not a border poll because they will have to support the Union as most of their support is in Unionist areas. They have been getting more support from Nationalists in recent years which they will lose after a border poll. Even if Nationalism does lose they can get another poll in 7 years if the result is close.
REDANDBLACK30 (Down) - Posts: 1673 - 23/05/2023 12:31:43 2480857 Link 0 |
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Combined nationalist vote - if you include PBP - was 41.5%.. It was 40.5% in Assembly elections 20 years ago almost to the date. do the math! BarneyGrant (Dublin) - Posts: 3226 - 23/05/2023 14:16:14 2480913 Link 5 |
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The combined Nationalist vote is higher than the combined Unionist vote. The point is the economy of the Republic is very strong which is when a border poll can be won. If the economy of the Republic weakens the chances of a border poll winning are very low.
REDANDBLACK30 (Down) - Posts: 1673 - 23/05/2023 15:03:23 2480947 Link 0 |
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The Alliance vote is a unionist vote. They are taking support directly from the Official Unionists. The only legitimate vote on unity would be a 32 county vote on the same day but that is excluded by the GFA. Republicans were right to call off an unwinnable armed campaign, but they have ended up in a cul de sac of not only accepting Partition but being the most enthusiastic about running the north under British sovereignty. It is a truly surreal situation when you think about it. BarneyGrant (Dublin) - Posts: 3226 - 23/05/2023 15:29:33 2480961 Link 5 |
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The Alliance vote is mostly Unionist but 30% of it would be Nationalist. The Unionist vote is also much older than the Nationalist vote so demographics are against Unionism. The trajectory is towards a United Ireland. A border poll is not easy to win for Nationalism but it is winnable. Yeah that is a fair point on Sinn Fein but the alternative is Tory rule from London.
REDANDBLACK30 (Down) - Posts: 1673 - 23/05/2023 16:05:01 2480989 Link 0 |
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It's not 30%. More like 5-10 at most.
Rolo2010 (Donegal) - Posts: 746 - 23/05/2023 17:52:34 2481041 Link 0 |
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Our economy may be strong but it still can't handle the North. Our surplus would be wiped out in 2 years if we matched the same funding from London.
Rolo2010 (Donegal) - Posts: 746 - 23/05/2023 17:54:13 2481044 Link 0 |
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The point R&B is making is valid and at the same time what you are saying about a cost is also valid - perhaps not the numbers but the concept. The problem is it needs to be discussed and that is not happening. While the economic benefits are a major point, they clearly wouldn't be the only one but even on that point there is a long way to go. The last poll I saw on the subject only 12% of NI Protestants believed that the NI and Ireland would benefit and only 5% believed NI would benefit. 28% in NI say Ireland would benefit and 25% both lose. 30% were in the Do not know. In terms of party support 2/5th of the DUP and TUV say the other side would benefit which is no great surprise. It is the 30% that will determine the outcome. Until people start talking about what a UI would look like, the do not knows will remain a do not know. The Unionist parties will never talk about it because that would admit defeat so a way has to be found to talk about it openly and find an agreement that works for everyone. The more the Unionist parties refuse to talk, the more ground they will lose to the Alliance party who will talk and listen. zinny (Wexford) - Posts: 1904 - 24/05/2023 02:50:12 2481108 Link 1 |
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Totally agree with the last part. They have to run NI, an entity their reason for being, is to see eliminated. They may now have to start acting like a real political party and decide where they sit on issues that impact the day to day lives of people. They are not the leftist populist party of SF across the border, so who are they really?
zinny (Wexford) - Posts: 1904 - 24/05/2023 02:58:29 2481109 Link 0 |
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If Germany with a population of over 80 million was successfully re-united, I don't think Ireland with a population of 7 million would be a major problem. I imagine Britain would consider paying the annual 14 million block grant in the short term, they would be only too glad to get rid of us. The EU would be the main contributor with the US also contributing with capital investments. tireoghainabu (Tyrone) - Posts: 351 - 24/05/2023 08:54:19 2481135 Link 0 |
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Yep. The FDI into the untapped 20% of the country would dwarf any 'costs' associated with reunification. At the same time, it would improve the standard and quality of life in the 6 counties almost overnight. The right to identify as British would be protected and the % of Ulster Unionist in an All-Ireland Parliament would be multiples of that currently in Westminster. Those resisting this are simply cutting off their nose to spite their face. cavanman47 (Cavan) - Posts: 5212 - 24/05/2023 09:45:09 2481147 Link 7 |
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It used to be about that level but it is much higher at least 25%-30% the last few years. This is shown by a the majority of Alliance transfers going to the SDLP/Sinn Fein in recent elections.
REDANDBLACK30 (Down) - Posts: 1673 - 24/05/2023 09:55:04 2481151 Link 0 |
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The figure I heard is that the Republic will have a surplus of £65 -70 billion over the next 5-6 years. That would pay for reunification for a few years and then the Irish Government could raise taxes for 5 years. After that the economic benefits of reunification will far outweigh the costs economies of scale etc.
REDANDBLACK30 (Down) - Posts: 1673 - 24/05/2023 09:58:21 2481152 Link 1 |
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They'd need to integrate services such as health and education and plan it well in advance. I think it might be a good thing if we adapted the Leaving Certificate towards the A level system and students could decide on a lesser number of subjects to concentrate on. Rather than this overload of unnecessary subjects in some cases in the Leaving. Someone going on to study Engineering or Science in third level doesn't need French or Irish skills, someone who wants to study the Arts doesn't need maths or physics.
GreenandRed (Mayo) - Posts: 7704 - 24/05/2023 10:01:11 2481153 Link 7 |
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Most people in Ireland don't want their taxes to be raised even for unification. The rate of higher tax is still low. We have a housing and rental crisis and most of that surplus will put aside for rainy day fund to deal with an aging population.
Rolo2010 (Donegal) - Posts: 746 - 24/05/2023 13:23:13 2481226 Link 0 |
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I heard a figure that the £10 billlion it would cost to run the North would only be about 4% of Irish GDP so the fall in living standards would be very small?? The tax rises might be as little as 5%-10%?? How much of a tax rise would the population of the Republic deem worthwhile or acceptable??
REDANDBLACK30 (Down) - Posts: 1673 - 24/05/2023 14:25:30 2481256 Link 0 |
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It is a good example because at the time of the reunification of Germany West Germany was much richer than East Germany.
REDANDBLACK30 (Down) - Posts: 1673 - 24/05/2023 14:28:57 2481258 Link 0 |
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The Irish government should be planning now because if a vote was to pass how do they plan to deal with the security situation of angry loyalists causing trouble etc?? Unionists will not accept a democratic vote. REDANDBLACK30 (Down) - Posts: 1673 - 24/05/2023 14:33:53 2481260 Link 0 |
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If the demographics change as much in the next 10 years as they did between 2011 and 2021 it is inevitable that a border poll will be called sooner than what people might think.Despite what people might say in opinion polls I don't think many Catholics would vote for the Union in an actual referendum.It will be interesting to see which side other Ethnic groups will take. gunman (Donegal) - Posts: 1126 - 24/05/2023 14:52:06 2481276 Link 1 |
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Your obsession with only seeing problems with the "other side" shows that a change will not occur
KillingFields (Limerick) - Posts: 3681 - 24/05/2023 14:59:53 2481283 Link 0 |