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what a very odd question
lilypad (Kildare) - Posts: 1363 - 22/04/2020 20:16:29 2276516 Link 3 |
I agree with you. There's always hope. Optimism beats pessimism every day in my opinion. A knock out competition could be over with relatively quick. Not now of course but if you had a month of no new cases it's a slim possibility.
Trump2020 (Galway) - Posts: 2589 - 22/04/2020 20:17:22 2276517 Link 0 |
It will be that bit earlier than September 2021 before games are played. All groups within GAA will go into financial trouble long term if that is the case. You will have sport played before then. A vaccine will be found before September 2021 though as scientists in us/UK or elsewhere have been spending so much time and resources on developing vaccines and some are going towards human trials soon enough
KillingFields (Limerick) - Posts: 3786 - 22/04/2020 20:41:07 2276519 Link 1 |
Do you not think that it is more important for people to get to work and provide for their families than playing amateur sport? I play hurling and football but at the end of the day, GAA is a hobby and doesn't really matter.
fjones (Dublin) - Posts: 12 - 22/04/2020 21:05:15 2276522 Link 3 |
It's a fair point, R0 is imperfect, I'd be critical a bit of the prevalence of it in our modelling and like you say there are obvious flaws it using as it being one stat to rule them all. it's also over time going to be become irrelevant as natural herd immunity (though recent anecdotal roorts has suggested doubts about this) is achieved. we have will have recovered cases and will look at RE over time. It's used to project the infectious rate in a blanket uninflected community and is part of Mathamatical modelling, it's not definitive as you say, nor sometimes is supposed to be its a subjective projection on svailbke date and level of contagion, community transferability of particular virus, so subjective. It also depends on detected cases, average contacts, infectious period of a confirmed case and environmental measures (lock down, social distancing)all added to a model. Then distinctive and particular population data is added to the model. In Ireland we know that over 60% of deaths have taken place in nursing homes, as horrific as that is that is a controlled environment once identified and not me and you walking around spreading it, also 200 odd of over 300 clusters have been in residential care. So that influences modelling and the R0 number. But you are right take it with a pinch a salt as it's subjective projecting modelling, not definitive without testing just south of 5 million it's Schrödinger's stuff. Even more so if the anecdotal stuff about natural herd immunity turns out to be true. While we can and will improve testing and contract testing infrastructure, we are week out from broadening our assessment base for testing to. While we wouldn't be as good in Germany we are a hell of a lot better then most, not sure if people having been following the UK much, what a mess, with nothing in the community in place. Anyway as it's a GAA forum, got a text TheUsername (Dublin) - Posts: 4518 - 22/04/2020 21:21:06 2276525 Link 1 |
It's a fair point, R0 is imperfect, I'd be critical a bit of the prevalence of it in our modelling and like you say there are obvious flaws in using as it being one stat to rule them all. it's also over time going to be become irrelevant as natural herd immunity (though recent anecdotal reports has suggested doubts about this) is achieved. we have will have recovered cases and will look at RE over time. It's used to project the infectious rate in a blanket uninflected community and is part of Mathamatical modelling, it's not definitive as you say, nor sometimes is supposed to be its a subjective projection on svailbke date and level of contagion, community transferability of particular virus, so subjective. It also depends on detected cases, average contacts, infectious period of a confirmed case and environmental measures (lock down, social distancing)all added to a model. Then distinctive and particular population data is added to the model. In Ireland we know that over 60% of deaths have taken place in nursing homes, as horrific as that is that is a controlled environment once identified and not me and you walking around spreading it in the wider community, also 200 odd of over 300 clusters have been in residential care. So that influences modelling and the R0 number, to. But you are right take it with a pinch a salt as it's subjective projecting modelling, not definitive without testing just south of 5 million it's Schrödinger's stuff. Even more so if the anecdotal stuff about natural herd immunity turns out to be true. While we can and will improve testing and contract testing infrastructure, we are ahead of many on this curve. we are week out from broadening our assessment base for testing to. While we wouldn't be as good in Germany we are a hell of a lot better then most, not sure if people havebeen following the UK much, what a mess, with nothing in the community in place. Anyway back to GAA, got a text earlier to say their might be a bit on Tonight show on Virgin Media with a GAA rep - not sure how true it is, but I believe it's trying to be sorted, maybe we might learn a bit then. TheUsername (Dublin) - Posts: 4518 - 22/04/2020 21:25:52 2276526 Link 1 |
Difference between trialling a vaccine and one that works. There was vaccine for Sarrs after many attempts . FoolsGold (Cavan) - Posts: 2894 - 22/04/2020 21:32:36 2276527 Link 2 |
Although Ozzy is fond of eating the odd bat so he mightend :-) and your right Keith Richards will probably out live us all, he's fairly bullet proof.
KingdomBoy1 (Kerry) - Posts: 14092 - 22/04/2020 21:38:06 2276529 Link 2 |
Finding a vaccine is only half the challenge. Manufacturing it in volumes required for virtually everyone in the entire world, paying for it (it will be very expensive), distributing it and then administering it will itself take as long as finding the vaccine. I hope I'm wrong but can't see a match being played for 18 months. Onion Breath (Carlow) - Posts: 1607 - 22/04/2020 21:46:50 2276531 Link 1 |
In the context of Tony Houlihan's comments today, it looks like a return to club action in some form might be possible during the summer. Some positive news at last? football first (None) - Posts: 1259 - 22/04/2020 22:04:41 2276536 Link 1 |
Liam O Neill former president said the Gaa won't be putting players at risk to please people. What happens when a player gets infected. Then there is a domino effect FoolsGold (Cavan) - Posts: 2894 - 22/04/2020 22:40:06 2276539 Link 1 |
The Flu has a season so maybe this thing does too. Maybe. Just hoping.
Trump2020 (Galway) - Posts: 2589 - 22/04/2020 22:54:15 2276541 Link 1 |
So lets say your a top forward for your county, and you got a top defender literally living in your ear for 70+ minutes he's all over you like a rash as you go for every ball. Your saying that would be safe enough like? What happens then when you find out a week or 2 later he, or one of his teammates whom he shared a dressing room with tests positive for covid19? This is how clusters will start forming again. You have squads of 25 plus backroom teams all handling doors, handling equipment, and working in a confined space, players sharing showers, how do the GAA protect players here?
The_Fonz (Westmeath) - Posts: 214 - 22/04/2020 23:16:17 2276543 Link 1 |
It is more important, I'm self employed with 2 kids and business is goosed now, for god knows how long but for me the Gaa still matters. It would be far easier on the mind if there was some sport to look 4ward to. This doesn't mean I want people to be put at risk, I just wanna watch some hurling and I'll keep on wishing until someone puts me out of my misery. Dec82 (Clare) - Posts: 242 - 23/04/2020 01:16:15 2276545 Link 2 |
SARS does not have a vaccine. One went into clinical trials in China in 2004 however as the virus had been eradicated at that stage the clinical trials didn't mean anything. SARS was eradicated by starvation, that will never happen with this virus without a vaccine and even then, given how other viruses survive with effective vaccines, its here forever.
zinny (Wexford) - Posts: 2025 - 23/04/2020 02:08:17 2276546 Link 1 |
By stopping all GAA activities until jan 2020 at least..
Galwaymaster9 (Galway) - Posts: 397 - 23/04/2020 04:26:51 2276548 Link 1 |
Well if it does, and it follows the pattern of the flu season there wont be any time for playing anyway. The shutdown on gatherings is until September and the flu vaccine is administered to the public from the beginning of October, usually from about the 2nd week of the month.
PoolSturgeon (Galway) - Posts: 2050 - 23/04/2020 08:09:01 2276549 Link 1 |
I think it goes without saying we would all love sport and matches of every code and grade to be back but why are people seriously thinking of ways about current guidelines to get games played? LongfordSham (Longford) - Posts: 124 - 23/04/2020 09:56:05 2276552 Link 4 |
Interesting read here about how the Germans are looking to finish off the Bundesliga season. Lockjaw (Donegal) - Posts: 9871 - 23/04/2020 11:04:51 2276556 Link 1 |
Sorry to hear of your troubles Dec82, no doubt there will be tough times ahead and football and hurling would ease the pain of that. I'm just wondering when numbers start to ease off how long would it take to have a test done and for a result back? I'm only asking because if the GAA were serious about running the championships they could put players up in hotels test them and isolate them till their tests come back ( if say results would only take a day or 2 to come back) It would cost the gaa a fair bit of money but it would probably cost them more not to have the championships. KingdomBoy1 (Kerry) - Posts: 14092 - 23/04/2020 11:52:19 2276558 Link 3 |