At this point -

Dunguib (whatever he runs in)
Denman
Big Bucks

Whats yours?

The_Fugitive (Meath) - Posts: 3 - 07/01/2010 09:39:50    526566

£100 treble master minded, big bucks and the star of course.

will be on go native as well.

you could do worse than follow neville ring the tipster in the irish news, five winners on day one last year, three on day 2. i am still spending the money.

Down follower (Down) - Posts: 193 - 07/01/2010 12:51:43    526711

big bucks-worldhurdle.
kauto star-gold cup.
dunquib-supreme novices.
master minded-champion chase.

the chmpion hurdle is still a mystery, i would wait on that one, good luck everyone.

ta32 (Tyrone) - Posts: 4907 - 07/01/2010 13:29:55    526759

F.T.Q
County: Down
Posts: 122

526711 £100 treble master minded, big bucks and the star of course.

Throw in dunguib for supreme novices (which he is most likely to run in) works out about 20/1!

beer baron (Cavan) - Posts: 3916 - 07/01/2010 13:45:39    526781

that would be a tidy profit beer baron.

Down follower (Down) - Posts: 193 - 07/01/2010 16:24:27    526979

Dunguib
Voler La Vodette
Quel Espirit
Hurricane Fly

conor15 (None) - Posts: 347 - 07/01/2010 17:07:24    527044

Go native

big bucks

pandaroma

Dellboypolecat (Tyrone) - Posts: 15069 - 07/01/2010 17:18:33    527069

My Nap of the week, original and all as it is, has to be Big Bucks in the Stayers! 4/6 might not be everybody's price but you are basically taking that about him turning up fit and well. Punchestowns is gone chasing, Kasbah Bliss is sticking to the flat and the next generation of stayers, Diamond Harry and Karabak, were put in their place by Big Bucks the last day. I suspect he will trade a lot bigger in running too given how he usually makes his jockey earn his pay.

Wouldn't be as keen on a lot of the bankers as others on here. Master Minded is heading straight to Cheltenham so its then a question of how much you trust his trainer. Certainly, he has never repeated the heroics of 2008 and he wouldn't be the first French bred to regress at an early age. Lots of potential champion chasers set to run too, Kalahari King, Forpadydeplasterer and Petit Robin being the most obvious.

The Gold Cup is a two horse race in my opinion but I would not dare predict a winner at this stage. Probably the two best performances I've ever seen over the jumps were Denman in the Hennessy 2009 and Kauto Star in the King George 2009. But the ground will be key, good to soft, soft in places or slower, advantage Denman, good to soft, good in places or faster, advantage Kauto Star. Good to soft on its own and its a level playing field in my opinion. But, no way would I predict a winner right now.

The Irish usually do well in the novice hurdles and this year we've Quel Esprit, Rite of Passage and Shinrock Paddy to go to war with. But the novice hurdler everyone's talking about is Dunguib. Now I've seen it before with Sweet Wake and Cousin Vinny in the Supreme, all they supposedly had to do was turn up. All I'll say is the words Irish Banker and Supreme Novice's Hurdle have not gone well together in the past. Even Amaretto Rose for England in 2007! There dosen't seem to be a lot there to beat Dunguib but I'd wait until after the Deloitte Hurdle before making my final judgement on that horse.

Finally the Champion Hurdle is up in the air. If I was pushed I'd go with Solwhit but there's a few key trials to come like the Kingwell, the AIG, the Tote Trophy, the Red Mills and the Welsh Champion Hurdle. Khyber Kim did not get enough credit for his win in the Bula (the superlatives Paddy Brennan came out with after the race were very strong too) so he'll probably go off a bigger price than he should do.

Loyal2TheRoyal (Meath) - Posts: 4522 - 07/01/2010 20:23:09    527355

My nap is that the ground will be good to soft at the start of racing!

Backing odds on shots ante post wouldnt be my cup of tea, there is a lot that could go wrong between now and March. Saying all that if Kauto, Big Bucks and Dunguib make it there they will win. You would want to be a big (and brave) player though to back them at this stage...

The value seems to be gone with Captain Cee Bee in the Arkle and he is plenty short enough even if he probably would have beaten Sizing Europe at Leopardstown. I dont think running Long Run in the Arkle is a good idea as the pace that they go at will place serious pressure on his jumping and having Sam Waley Cohen in the saddle is a negative. Im a big Somersby fan and consider as well that Sportsline is value at 16s, very impressive jumping performance at Navan.

As Ive said before Punjabi remains the forgotten horse in the Champion and is tremendous value at 12/1. If you havent got a big price on Zaynar, the value is probably gone but he remains a deserving favourite. I initially thought that Go Native was overrated but have got him wrong and was taken by his jumping at Kempton, he has a chance in a very open race.

Ive backed Kalahari King for the Ryanair at a big price on Betfair but it seems Murphy is mad keen for him to go down the Champion route, the Champion Chase doesnt look as strong a race as other years and if Nicholls can get Master Minded to the festival (probably without prep), he still remains most likely winner as the break might be the best thing for him.

Weird Al and Weapons Amnesty offer each way value in the RSA with doubts about the participation of a number of those towards the head of the market. Punchestown has looked good and will be hard to beat but at 4s is short enough at this stage.

Horses that could be well handicapped include Wolf Moon (Pretemps Hurdle), Four Strong Winds of Jonjo if fitted with blinkers could be one for novice handicap hurdle, Cant Buy Time of same stable reminds me of Wichita Lineman and looks tailor made for William Hill Hcap Chase.

And finally, I was very impressed by Notus De La Tour of David Pipes at Plumpton who could be an outsider for the Triumph or the Novice Handicap Hurdle.

gianfranco (Offaly) - Posts: 100 - 08/01/2010 19:05:08    528383

loyaltotheroyal and gianfranco- both excellent posts.

Down follower (Down) - Posts: 193 - 08/01/2010 19:15:09    528411

Binocular in the Champion Hurdle. This horse will not get beat at Cheltenham where it matters most. Be under no illusion JP will have his money down at nice odds that day.

Squid

squidword (Louth) - Posts: 2897 - 08/01/2010 21:14:39    528532

I agree with ta32

hurlingguru (Carlow) - Posts: 1863 - 09/01/2010 11:45:34    528636

I've seen this too many times. If anyone would like to put forward the case for Dunguib being 1/1 without mentioning his bumper form, I would love to read it! Whats even worse is that Paddy Power have him 4/1 with a run for the Champion Hurdle!!!!!

Sweet Wake in 2006, Amarretto Rose in 2007, Cousin Vinny in 2009, ??????? in 2010! Its fine winning Irish novice hurdles against four and five runners on heavy ground but he'll face a lot different in Cheltenham, just like Sweet Wake and Cousin Vinny did when they went to the Cotswolds. The best horse Dunguib has beaten are Some Present, Puyol and Sweeps Hill and with what I know now, not on them would get within a million miles of a Supreme novices' hurdle.

The "All he has to do is turn up" brigade will be out in the run up to Cheltenham but I would not believe the hype! We'll see what he does at Leopardstown, my feeling is that there is a good chance the bubble could burst!

Loyal2TheRoyal (Meath) - Posts: 4522 - 09/01/2010 12:32:29    528666

The best bet is even money that the bookies clean up, as usual.

patrique (Antrim) - Posts: 13709 - 09/01/2010 14:20:25    528748

loyal2theroyal.
do u not think that dunquib has a serious burst of speed, u are right though the irish novices in these races have been a graveyard at cheltenham over the years.
i was very disapointed in cousin vinny last year, even though his trip over was not the best.
dunquib has been a sensation this year he is the best irish novice, and england have not much coming out on that front, so i can see him win easly at prestbury pk come march, be u know they do not hang about there either.

p.s, the star will romp home .

ta32 (Tyrone) - Posts: 4907 - 09/01/2010 21:05:09    529094

the champion hurdle does look a mystery.

but i am going 2 stick my neck out here.
do not write off binocular.

ta32 (Tyrone) - Posts: 4907 - 09/01/2010 21:09:08    529098

ta32

bincolour will not be good enough as he cant get near go native and will not get near solwit.

Dellboypolecat (Tyrone) - Posts: 15069 - 09/01/2010 21:51:56    529141

I see Ferdy Murphy has said he is confident that Bedlam Boy will run very well in the Arkle Chase. Now while I am well aware that trainers like to talk their horses up before races he is a shrewd placer of a horse and at 46/1 on Betfair at the moment is a big price. He comparess him favourably with Kalihari King which was an unlucky second to Forpadytheplasterer last year in the same race.
As an outside tip it might not be the worst bet around.

jackhackett (Meath) - Posts: 773 - 10/01/2010 17:38:40    529429

lads alarm are ringing in nichols camp for master mind , hold the antepost bets until further notice.

ta32 (Tyrone) - Posts: 4907 - 11/01/2010 16:11:06    529985

cant see how anyone could back binocular, even McCoy said there were no more excuses after kempton.

Down follower (Down) - Posts: 193 - 11/01/2010 17:39:36    530122