Dublin are strong favourites against Monaghan and so they should be. I have an issue with the constant dismissing of Monaghan. It is both disrespectful and unfounded by the facts. Personally I think Monaghan have a 20% chance of winning which is not too far off the official odds. I don't think Armagh, Tyrone, Mayo, Galway etc would have any more of a chance of beating Dublin.

A few facts for consideration re the upcoming semi final:

1) Monaghan have played Dublin 4 times in the last 6 years. Monaghan have won 3 and drawn 1. That is remarkable. There are two years when there was no game between the two sides. This year due to Dublin being in Division 2 and 2021 when the national league was split geographically.

2) Dublin have been beaten 13 times since 2018 in league and championship - a period when they have won 3 All Irelands (possible 4 if they win this year). Derry, Kildare, Armagh have beaten Dublin once. Mayo and Tyrone have beaten Dublin twice, and Monaghan and Kerry have beaten Dublin three times.

3) Monaghan are the only team with an unbeaten record against Dublin in the last six years. Dublin's bogey team! Kerry have lost once against Dublin in 6 years, Monaghan haven't. Shows that Dublin need to break ground to win an ireland this year.

4) Michael Murphy said that Monaghan have been winning by a point all year after the penalty shoot-out win against Armagh. I have heard others say this as well. This has now become the common narrative but it is not true. In 2023 Monaghan have the following record W5 D2 L5. Only one of Monaghan's wins have been by a point vs Kildare. Other wins were Roscommon (+3), Donegal (+8), Clare (+5), Mayo (+6) and Tyrone (+2), not quite the one point wonders people say.

None of this takes away from Dublin being heavy favourites. It does mean that Monaghan winning would not be as big a shock as people think and that the Monaghan team will not fear Dublin like most people assume they will. Monaghan should believe they can win.

I also think peoples perceptions of this game is being disportionately shaped by Dublin excellent second half versus a tired team and a tired Monaghan battling past two defensive teams in last two games.

Of course if we go back more than six years Dublin had two big quarter final wins against Monaghan in 2014 and 2017 but surely that is of less relevance than the above.

Monaghan haven't a hope ! ;-)

turnip12 (Monaghan) - Posts: 18 - 05/07/2023 20:23:15    2492530

Looking forward to this one. Monaghan being written off but I wouldn't fall off my chair if this is close. Vinny Corey has got Monaghan lads playing for him. The big problem for teams in Croker park is matching Dublin physically. However, you would imagine Monaghan will be cuter than Mayo who just went hell for leather at it. I would imagine Monaghan will look to take the sting out of it and halt any Dublin momentum at every opportunity. Think there is a couple of goals in Monaghan, particularly coming from late runners. For Dubs you would imagine Kilkenny will be back. They looked good against Mayo and they will want another crack at Kerry

97Cavans (Cavan) - Posts: 327 - 15/07/2023 11:26:09    2494456

rossy15 (Roscommon) - Posts: 620 - 15/07/2023 12:04:03    2494462

endgame (Roscommon) - Posts: 2187 - 15/07/2023 12:37:50    2494476

I'd love to see Monaghan win this but in truth it's hard to see anything but a Dublin win, then again that was the thoughts of most of the country indeed most of Donegal before the 2014 semi final.
Cmon Monaghan you can do it!!!

Tirchonaill1 (Donegal) - Posts: 2777 - 15/07/2023 12:41:56    2494477

Lovely day for it! ;)

TheUsername (Dublin) - Posts: 4446 - 15/07/2023 13:04:39    2494480

Anyone looking to swap a Hill ticket.. I'm over the Hill. Literally

jimbodub (Dublin) - Posts: 20608 - 15/07/2023 13:45:13    2494490

cavanman47 (Cavan) - Posts: 5028 - 15/07/2023 13:48:55    2494491

I'd fully agree with the Dub hype after the Mayo game.

I said as much in the Monaghan GAA thread

With that weather today, and how I think Monaghan will approach their setup, I think Dublin are going to find this very tough going today

I still feel Monaghan needs goals today to win, so let's wait and see..

Hats off if yiz turn over Dublin, I'll applaud yiz off, regardless of the disappointment, it'll be a huge day for Monaghan GAA and the football championship.

jimbodub (Dublin) - Posts: 20608 - 15/07/2023 13:50:18    2494492

If Jim Gavin was managing this Dublin I'd have the same opinion as everyone else about Monaghan having no chance. Under Farrell Dublin have been inconsistent at best. And have shown a soft centre at times. Monaghan may not be favourites, but are not without a chance.

SoNearYetSoFarney (Monaghan) - Posts: 50 - 15/07/2023 14:07:41    2494496

Niblock on BBC always calls the ball "the size 5" just in case some of us are confused and think they are using a size 4 ball.

PattyONeill (Derry) - Posts: 227 - 15/07/2023 20:05:11    2494616

Gaa_lover (USA) - Posts: 3362 - 15/07/2023 20:19:05    2494619

BarneyGrant (Dublin) - Posts: 2663 - 16/07/2023 00:57:09    2494689

tireoghainabu (Tyrone) - Posts: 278 - 16/07/2023 09:25:40    2494700

ForeverBlue2 (Cavan) - Posts: 1975 - 16/07/2023 09:51:09    2494706

joeteor (Donegal) - Posts: 218 - 16/07/2023 09:54:52    2494708

Hurson gifted Dublin 3 points from very very soft frees yesterday. Frees that Monaghan weren't getting at the other end. Lyons did the same thing last week for Kilkenny against Cork. These guys read the narrative beforehand regarding who's expected to win and favour that team. If the big team wins, less controversy and less spotlight on them. It's actually pathetic.

It may have changed the outcome yesterday, because it was so close. Realistically, however, it looked like Monaghan needed a goal to win it and they lacked that genuine threat inside, McManus has lost half a yard of pace (no shame) and McCarron doesnt have it.

But Lyons did directly dictate the outcome of last week's hurling match. Both refs were weak.

oso (Antrim) - Posts: 168 - 16/07/2023 09:55:09    2494709

Fair play to Monaghan, came with a plan and fought like tigers. Sometimes it was 15 Vs 13, amazing what Beggan gives out field an out ball, as the enabler of that system - interesting tactic.

We got value for money it was a contest up to the 61st minute.

Wonder will it be the last we see of McManus, what a player.

Semi finals are there to be won though and happy we did.

You have to play against every type of style and over come it to win an All Ireland, delighted we've another game this year.

TheUsername (Dublin) - Posts: 4446 - 16/07/2023 09:59:52    2494712

farneygael (Monaghan) - Posts: 277 - 16/07/2023 10:42:19    2494723

I re-watched the match after getting home on Saturday and made some notes.

First, well done to Dublin. A very strong last 10 minutes got them over the line and their strong bench was key.

a) Dublin's first wide was on 30 minutes. Monaghan had hit the post three times and had three wides by then.
b) Dublin also got two soft scoring frees in the first half.
c) Monaghan butchered a fantastic goal opportunity in first half.

Monaghan should have been 1-3 points up at half time.

d) Monaghan were the better team in the 3rd quarter and should have led going into last 10 minutes. The last 10 minutes might have played out differently if it had a different starting point.

Monaghan's lost kick outs around 62-64 mins (great pressing) and touching the ball in the ground (harsh call?) won the game for Dublin.

Irrespective of this strong period for Dublin if sean jones caught the ball on 67 minutes it was a one point game.

Overall, Monaghan lacked a little composure/accuracy. Dublin were deadly in comparison. Even if Monaghan had been up by 2 points at 60 minutes Dublin may have had too much for a tiring Monaghan team.

Without Cluxton i think Monaghan would have won. Dublin in recent years were panicky at kickout without him, and Dublin were almost 100% from kick outs because of Cluxton.

It was a missed opportunity for Monaghan that is for sure. Dublin were vulnerable but Monaghan did not get the luck (the goal) or the rub of the green from the referee (different referee decisions could have given Monaghan a +3 point swing).

Conor, Karl, Darren and Kieran have been amazing servants of Monaghan football. I hope they stay around as they could easily be the difference in the final 20 minutes of a semi final next year. They still have so much to offer Monaghan, and with a good years preparation no reason why they can not start late in the championship.

A word for quite a number of ex-pundits and the narrative before the game. Their commentary was embarrassingly stupid to be honest. Monaghan had a 20-30% chance of winning last Saturday and they said it was a foregone conclusion. Keegan, Andrews, O'Donoghue and Connelly clearly suffer from recency bias (all that mattered was the second half versus a tiring Mayo), an over-belief that their owned lived experiences from 4-8 years ago matters so much more than performances in 2023 and an ingrained disrespect for all teams outside of the top 4 teams. Their views reminded me of a bunch of overly confident investors in 2007 who proclaim their complete confidence in one outcome and are completely ignorant of what is actually going on (what data and reality can tell you). To be fair, Dessie Farrell acknowledged this after the game. Dessie came across like a decent guy living in reality!

turnip12 (Monaghan) - Posts: 18 - 17/07/2023 10:53:34    2495031