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Dublin 10 In A Row Odds!

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Off the Ball to be fair have spoken about Dublin's dominance. Dublin are beatable but 8+ in a row is more likely. RTE while shying away from superlatives have questioned are the rest playing for second place? The Irish Independent then have asked is splitting Dublin etc. crackpot or sensible? Former Dublin players have spoken about the dogs on the street understanding home advantage. Others have said what we are witnessing needs to shown to be more than something cyclical.

4 in a row has been done before. That is no reason for a split. 6 or 7 championships from 8 or 9 has been done before as well.

Mayo are the Nation's favourite. There was apathy after their defeat on Saturday. Kerry's youth progressing to the final is a distraction for a few weeks. The GAA are heading into uncharted territory. Is a Tier 2 Championship their best solution or stepping stone as part of an overall evolution? The GAA have proven themselves to be shrewd.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 6173 - 13/08/2019 18:03:54    2225221

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Replying To Joxer:  "By "Dublin media" I presume that you mean national media, headquartered in the capital. I'm not too sure how many reputable GAA journalists would be from Dublin either. I stand corrected but if memory serves, the commencement of the flow of serious cash to Dublin GAA was sanctioned by a Kerry man, Sean Kelly, who was GAA president at the time. I'm not too sure on what basis this Dublin team's achievements would be tainted, they never won an AI through the back door and they have to play 8 games to win one. Has it ever been this difficult for any team? I would argue, no."
Excellent point about the back door. Nothing said about that.
But I suppose haters gonna hate.

Bon (Kildare) - Posts: 669 - 13/08/2019 18:36:36    2225233

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When Offaly stopped Kerry's bid for five in '82 they had no pressure of expectation whatsoever on them and caught Kerry cold right at the death. The Dubs players will be alive to the fact that Kerry will take the achievement of them winning 5 as a very direct challenge and so they won't be taking to the pitch with any complacency in a couple of week's time. Thus, assuming they win this one, the overall title gap between themselves and the Kingdom will be down to 8. I don't know how long Jim Gavin intends to hang around for, but it wouldn't surprise me to discover that his long term aim is to overhaul Kerry, and while something like a 10 in a row is still a bit outlandish (though not preposterous given what's been happening), you wouldn't bet against this aim being achievable by 2030. It's a bit like climate change... by the time you get to see the effects it's too late to stop the momentum, so it could be Sam famine for the foreseeable for the rest of us.

Pericles (Mayo) - Posts: 1981 - 13/08/2019 18:48:40    2225236

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I really don't get all the words written about the so called vast amounts of money being spent in/on Dublin GAA and the massive advantage that this cash brings to Dublin.
It is a fact that the likes of Kerry and Mayo annually manage to bring home plenty of dollars from America to fund their Football only teams. Kerry also receive a very very decent donation from the Kerry Group. Likewise, Kilkenny do alright from Glanbia ...used solely for Hurling of course.
One big advantage that Dublin have is that their players are nearly all based in Dublin (Jack works in Drogheda and that's fairly close). This allows them easy access to training and no real time wasted commuting to and from other areas outside Dublin.
While some people rant about Dublin playing in Croke Park, it is clear that the record of these Dubs on the road is very impressive. Most players want to play in Croke Park and the GAA want Dublin there to generate income. Witness the difference between attendances/income last Saturday and Sunday....of course I am aware Mayo brought a huge number of supporters but the blue fans were there in their droves. Omagh had a huge crowd too for the dead rubber game.

Please just acknowledge that we are privileged to be in a position to watch a squad of exceptionally talented players just at this moment just as we watched the likes of Kerry and Kilkenny dominate in the past. Enjoy the moment....life is too short to be begrudgers.

BlueBeret (Dublin) - Posts: 9 - 14/08/2019 00:50:26    2225365

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Replying To tearintom:  "Currently a well known bookmaker is offering odds of 12/1 on Dublin to win 10 in a row All Irelands ( a good bet imho looking at the current landscape)

Not only that the odds on Dublin winning 8 in a row are shorter than the odds on Kerry winning just this years final."
As they have 4 in the bag - that's 6 more in a row.
At 12/1, I think those odds are bad value.

Let's assume Dubs are 4/6 each year for 6 yrs - that would yield about 20/1 - 12/1 looks shabby to me - I'd rather put 12 down to win 1 that it doesn't happen (it only takes one slip up for imperfection).

omahant (USA) - Posts: 1610 - 14/08/2019 02:37:27    2225377

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Replying To PK57:  "This "it never lasts" argument is grand except Dublin aren't just winning games, they are destroying all in front of them. The average winning margin by Dublin in this year's championship is 14.9 points and their lowest winning margin(excluding the dead rubber in Omagh) is 10 points. If you think a team is going to come from nowhere and stop them then you need a reality check. Is it not at all alarming to you that 10 in a row is a possibility. Maybe we should be talking about someone giving them a game first, before we talk about this era ending."
Do you believe that in order to have 'competition' we need a new model ? Should teams represent their local givernment area instead ? - seriously, what do we / will we need ? - go pro like Pro 14 or LOI ? - with 5 or 6 teams from Dublin ? - would it be more attractive right now to see a few Dub derby matches ?
Too many questions, not enough answers !

omahant (USA) - Posts: 1610 - 14/08/2019 02:49:46    2225378

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Replying To BlueBeret:  "I really don't get all the words written about the so called vast amounts of money being spent in/on Dublin GAA and the massive advantage that this cash brings to Dublin.
It is a fact that the likes of Kerry and Mayo annually manage to bring home plenty of dollars from America to fund their Football only teams. Kerry also receive a very very decent donation from the Kerry Group. Likewise, Kilkenny do alright from Glanbia ...used solely for Hurling of course.
One big advantage that Dublin have is that their players are nearly all based in Dublin (Jack works in Drogheda and that's fairly close). This allows them easy access to training and no real time wasted commuting to and from other areas outside Dublin.
While some people rant about Dublin playing in Croke Park, it is clear that the record of these Dubs on the road is very impressive. Most players want to play in Croke Park and the GAA want Dublin there to generate income. Witness the difference between attendances/income last Saturday and Sunday....of course I am aware Mayo brought a huge number of supporters but the blue fans were there in their droves. Omagh had a huge crowd too for the dead rubber game.

Please just acknowledge that we are privileged to be in a position to watch a squad of exceptionally talented players just at this moment just as we watched the likes of Kerry and Kilkenny dominate in the past. Enjoy the moment....life is too short to be begrudgers."
I agree that money isn't the sole factor, since players can't be bought, and they still have to be local, talented, coached and medically looked after etc. with most counties managing these things to a reasonable standard for a certain sized player pool. So the main factor is mobilisation of resources... the bigger a pick of developed talent available, the more sustainable will be the efforts on the pitch. Combine this with some definite logistical advantages over the likes of Mayo, Kerry, Donegal etc. and now at this point, the huge confidence differential which empowers all new Dubs players to express themselves when they get the chance, and you've got what we see now and likely for the foreseeable.

Pericles (Mayo) - Posts: 1981 - 14/08/2019 15:12:03    2225640

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Never mind 10 in a row, Kerry are 9/2 for an All-Ireland final!!! Unheard of, get on it.

realdub (Dublin) - Posts: 7613 - 14/08/2019 19:14:29    2225772

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Replying To realdub:  "Never mind 10 in a row, Kerry are 9/2 for an All-Ireland final!!! Unheard of, get on it."
100e on draw at 11/1 is my bet

Stmunnsriver (Wexford) - Posts: 1677 - 14/08/2019 20:06:19    2225788

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You'd probably get longer odds on PSG winning Ligue 1 10 times in a row!

eoghan6688 (Galway) - Posts: 52 - 14/08/2019 20:32:03    2225796

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Replying To Stmunnsriver:  "100e on draw at 11/1 is my bet"
Hmmm interesting

realdub (Dublin) - Posts: 7613 - 14/08/2019 21:55:19    2225832

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Replying To Stmunnsriver:  "100e on draw at 11/1 is my bet"
Are you actually going to stick a ton on that???

avonali (Dublin) - Posts: 1037 - 14/08/2019 22:29:43    2225849

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Replying To Pericles:  "I agree that money isn't the sole factor, since players can't be bought, and they still have to be local, talented, coached and medically looked after etc. with most counties managing these things to a reasonable standard for a certain sized player pool. So the main factor is mobilisation of resources... the bigger a pick of developed talent available, the more sustainable will be the efforts on the pitch. Combine this with some definite logistical advantages over the likes of Mayo, Kerry, Donegal etc. and now at this point, the huge confidence differential which empowers all new Dubs players to express themselves when they get the chance, and you've got what we see now and likely for the foreseeable."
That's an educated guess that's all though.

arock (Dublin) - Posts: 4135 - 15/08/2019 17:05:47    2226095

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Replying To Joxer:  "By "Dublin media" I presume that you mean national media, headquartered in the capital. I'm not too sure how many reputable GAA journalists would be from Dublin either. I stand corrected but if memory serves, the commencement of the flow of serious cash to Dublin GAA was sanctioned by a Kerry man, Sean Kelly, who was GAA president at the time. I'm not too sure on what basis this Dublin team's achievements would be tainted, they never won an AI through the back door and they have to play 8 games to win one. Has it ever been this difficult for any team? I would argue, no."
"I could bring it through Finance because it involved coaching kids," Ahern explains. "It was school, it was afterschool . . . we had to gear the whole thing back to school because that was the only way I could justify it. I said it would have to be absolutely transparent and public, because I'd get hammered [otherwise], and that's what we did.

"We put it up as a pilot project, and I made a few speeches. I built it into the estimates that it was a pilot that would continue in Dublin, and if other people wanted to add in bits later on, fine, but Dublin would remain, and that's what I did. I did it on the basis that GAA in Dublin wasn't dead but it was weak."

By building the project into the estimates, Ahern ensured that it was set in stone even if he moved out of Finance. Of course, the fact that he went on to be Taoiseach helped too.

Clubs were forced to adhere to strict rules and it took quite some time for the project to build momentum. To Ahern it wasn't rocket science. He spent his holidays in Kerry, where they had been doing all that without State aid for generations. "You have to butter the bread," he says, "before you put the sambo together."

Irish Independent, 29 September 2018. Read the second last sentence again! I rest my case.

baire (Galway) - Posts: 702 - 16/08/2019 08:28:02    2226248

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Replying To avonali:  "Are you actually going to stick a ton on that???"
of course he isn't, you would have to be out of your mind to lump a ton on a draw.

boman11 (Antrim) - Posts: 27 - 16/08/2019 11:13:47    2226312

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Replying To baire:  ""I could bring it through Finance because it involved coaching kids," Ahern explains. "It was school, it was afterschool . . . we had to gear the whole thing back to school because that was the only way I could justify it. I said it would have to be absolutely transparent and public, because I'd get hammered [otherwise
, and that's what we did.

"We put it up as a pilot project, and I made a few speeches. I built it into the estimates that it was a pilot that would continue in Dublin, and if other people wanted to add in bits later on, fine, but Dublin would remain, and that's what I did. I did it on the basis that GAA in Dublin wasn't dead but it was weak."

By building the project into the estimates, Ahern ensured that it was set in stone even if he moved out of Finance. Of course, the fact that he went on to be Taoiseach helped too.

Clubs were forced to adhere to strict rules and it took quite some time for the project to build momentum. To Ahern it wasn't rocket science. He spent his holidays in Kerry, where they had been doing all that without State aid for generations. "You have to butter the bread," he says, "before you put the sambo together."

Irish Independent, 29 September 2018. Read the second last sentence again! I rest my case."]Great post, a man who was Minister for Finance, yet had no bank account & we were expected to swallow it.

moc.dna (Galway) - Posts: 759 - 16/08/2019 19:35:23    2226551

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