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Replying To Whammo86: "He's satirising you.
Seriously you're attitude is really bad.
I think something therefore I am correct and everyone else is wrong.
You dismiss research into the subject as hear say.
It'd be funny only the sort of attitude you have many others have too and it's actually a menace to society.
It's a similar attitude that has people not vaccinating their children for measles because of some debunked link that was made between the mmr and autism.
Referee bias is the main cause of home advantage, its been reported in more than one study across multiple sports all of which are a lot more rigorous than your Kerry beat Dublin in 2009 analysis.
You're wrong and whether you choice to agree is your prerogative.
Further debate with you is pointless because you're not remotely close to operating at reasonable rational level with regards this." Hahahahahaha
It's like the pot calling the kettle black!
you say your right so you can't be wrong but yet I ask for one actual physical home advantage fact and you cannot show me one?
Your talk about vacination is funny because you are basing your whole reason for home advantage on a conspiracy theory that the ref favours the home team and then give out about the conspiracy theory of the vacination hahahaha
hill16no1man (Dublin) - Posts: 12665 - 06/04/2017 17:57:06
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Replying To hill16no1man: "Hahahahahaha
It's like the pot calling the kettle black!
you say your right so you can't be wrong but yet I ask for one actual physical home advantage fact and you cannot show me one?
Your talk about vacination is funny because you are basing your whole reason for home advantage on a conspiracy theory that the ref favours the home team and then give out about the conspiracy theory of the vacination hahahaha" It's not a conspiracy theory though.
There's been studies on it.
This is how understanding is gained in the world.
People do research and their findings inform opinion.
Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4210 - 06/04/2017 19:00:49
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So the refs all came out and said we give the home team an advantage when making a decision?
Is that what your telling me haha?
Home advantage is a myth like fluoride being good for your teeth, if you keep telling people it's true then they will believe it, never mind having a little thing called actual evidence to prove it.
hill16no1man (Dublin) - Posts: 12665 - 06/04/2017 19:15:28
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Hill, great idea to start this thread - it's always worth stopping to ask where the evidence is for certain beliefs, especially in sport, where so many ideas are just handed down without any real explanation. I fully agreed with everything you said when you dismissed all the funny claims about knowing where the jacks are and what way the wind blows. All those things certainly are 'mentality' problems that should be within the team's control. I was very sceptical about the refs too, but it looks like there is something to it.
Whammo has actually brought up the evidence you were looking for, because if the ref behaves more harshly towards the away team then that does give the home team an advantage. 'It' is physical because it blows a whistle and hands out cards! And the away team can't change that.
This is an example of unconscious bias that, on average, favours the home team. It's not a crackpot theory, or just some lad in the pub moaning that such-and-such a ref 'hates us'. The refs don't conspire to do anything, or even intend to go hard on a particular team, but nevertheless are biased anyway, unconsciously.
That paper Whammo mentioned analysed 2280 games in England and 1836 in Germany and found that home teams got fewer cards than away teams by a statistically significant margin. They even corrected for lots of in-game factors like whether a team was losing or not when the offence was committed. Interestingly, even if the visiting team was the favourite, they still got more cards. Even more interestingly, stadia where the crowd were close to the pitch had games with a bigger card mismatch than ones where a running track separated them so yes, the crowd were putting pressure on the ref. That's one paper but there are loads more from different countries and sports. Didn't see one from GAA yet though so who knows, maybe we're different (refs are usually not hassled if they get a free 'wrong' in hurling or football, are they??). But if you analysed 4000 GAA matches and reached a different conclusion I'd be very surprised.
Wexican (Wexford) - Posts: 36 - 06/04/2017 20:26:24
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Replying To Soma: "Looking at the top 3 league divisions this year in football and roughly the same amount of games are won by the away team as the home team, similar happened last year. In hurlings top division this year more games were won by the away team than the home team. This is in contrast to most other sports where having home advantage is statistically a huge factor. I wonder if there is any logical reason for why GAA would be different? When the fixtures come out most teams will target wins in their home games but the statistics say they are as likely to win away from home." The assertion that playing at home confers a huge advantage is actually a fallacy; in the US last year a large study was done into it and it was discovered that statistically it's essentially a draw in terms of winning at home and away. The only exception was in baseball where teams that have been on the road for an extended period tend to start loosing more the longer their road trip lasts, but it doesn't take a genius to see that this has more to do with the impact travelling, staying in hotels, etc. has on players and less to do with home crowd advantage.
festinog (Galway) - Posts: 3097 - 06/04/2017 20:49:34
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Replying To festinog: "The assertion that playing at home confers a huge advantage is actually a fallacy; in the US last year a large study was done into it and it was discovered that statistically it's essentially a draw in terms of winning at home and away. The only exception was in baseball where teams that have been on the road for an extended period tend to start loosing more the longer their road trip lasts, but it doesn't take a genius to see that this has more to do with the impact travelling, staying in hotels, etc. has on players and less to do with home crowd advantage." I'd love to see what study you're talking about because that doesn't match what I've read (and that includes one on different US sports).
By the way nobody said it was a huge advantage, just significant.
Wexican (Wexford) - Posts: 36 - 06/04/2017 21:13:49
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Wexican
where is the physical evidence referees give decisions to one team because there playing in their home ground? Has refs given this evidence to back it up?
I'm long enough watching Dublin matches to know refs don't give us anything home or away haha but that again is just my opinion not fact, one person could look at a tackle and see one outcome and the person next to them another outcome it all depends on what side they are up for most of the time.
I could also use a logic that the underdog has an advantage if that's the case as the ref is human and will automatically favour the team with the lesser chance of winning so would that cancel out home advantage then? It's all just perception not fact that a ref favours one team over another.
hill16no1man (Dublin) - Posts: 12665 - 06/04/2017 23:18:16
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Depends on the home surely? Also depends on how vocal your home supporters are.
A question for Dublin supporters. Do you think a crowd of about 35K for a league match in Croker is an advantage or disadvantage over a league game in Parnell Park? Just my own opinion but I think a sold out Croker is more of an advantage to ye. Yer supporters can fill the stadium with noise. But a less than half full game in Croker is less intimidating for the opposition, who will usually lift their game in Croke Park. Not knowing whether ye think a packed Parnell was an advantage or not but I was at a league match there in early '05 and the atmosphere was fantastic. The banter between the Dubs and us was class. It was also one of the best games I was ever at. End-to-end stuff more like street football than the National League.
GreenandRed (Mayo) - Posts: 7337 - 07/04/2017 07:54:05
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hill16no1man
Where would you rather your club play a crunch match against Naomh Fionnbarra? At home or away?
If you say it makes no difference playing them in the Bogies or at home you are literally mad!
MesAmis (Dublin) - Posts: 13705 - 07/04/2017 08:14:09
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Replying To MesAmis: "hill16no1man
Where would you rather your club play a crunch match against Naomh Fionnbarra? At home or away?
If you say it makes no difference playing them in the Bogies or at home you are literally mad!" Hahahahahaha
Going to the boogies is a test of one's manhood hahahaha
it would be a health and safety decision to play that game at home haha
hill16no1man (Dublin) - Posts: 12665 - 07/04/2017 09:32:06
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Replying To hill16no1man: "Wexican
where is the physical evidence referees give decisions to one team because there playing in their home ground? Has refs given this evidence to back it up?
I'm long enough watching Dublin matches to know refs don't give us anything home or away haha but that again is just my opinion not fact, one person could look at a tackle and see one outcome and the person next to them another outcome it all depends on what side they are up for most of the time.
I could also use a logic that the underdog has an advantage if that's the case as the ref is human and will automatically favour the team with the lesser chance of winning so would that cancel out home advantage then? It's all just perception not fact that a ref favours one team over another." I again refer to the published study in my replies. As others have said, there are several where that came from.
"where is the physical evidence referees give decisions to one team because there playing in their home ground?"
It's in the data - home teams receive statistically significantly less cards than away teams.
"Has refs given this evidence to back it up?"
No, of course not. It's unconscious bias so, by definition, they're unaware of it.
"I'm long enough watching Dublin matches to know refs don't give us anything home or away haha but that again is just my opinion not fact, one person could look at a tackle and see one outcome and the person next to them another outcome it all depends on what side they are up for most of the time."
Nothing to do with people's perceptions, only the evidence. Home teams get less cards than the visitors. Statistically significantly less.
"I could also use a logic that the underdog has an advantage if that's the case as the ref is human and will automatically favour the team with the lesser chance of winning so would that cancel out home advantage then?"
No. the home team, favorite or underdog, has the advantage of the ref's unconscious bias. The evidence in the data supports this.
"It's all just perception not fact that a ref favours one team over another."
Again no, not perception, evidence (see above). And the ref does not 'favour' a team, they display unconscious bias.
Wexican (Wexford) - Posts: 36 - 07/04/2017 10:00:46
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Replying To hill16no1man: "Wexican
where is the physical evidence referees give decisions to one team because there playing in their home ground? Has refs given this evidence to back it up?
I'm long enough watching Dublin matches to know refs don't give us anything home or away haha but that again is just my opinion not fact, one person could look at a tackle and see one outcome and the person next to them another outcome it all depends on what side they are up for most of the time.
I could also use a logic that the underdog has an advantage if that's the case as the ref is human and will automatically favour the team with the lesser chance of winning so would that cancel out home advantage then? It's all just perception not fact that a ref favours one team over another." Haha I put the study in the thread. Read it if you want haha it's no skin off my nose haha.
The evidence is there, I've presented it to you. Just because it doesn't fit some sort of arbitrary definition of physical evidence haha you have in your head haha doesn't make it not there. You're choosing to ignore it. Haha
Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4210 - 07/04/2017 10:33:40
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Try playing an away soccer match in the high altitude of La Paz and say there's no physical differnce from your home games. The Bolivians are well used to it unlike most of their visitors and the results dont lie.
SaffronDon (Antrim) - Posts: 2385 - 07/04/2017 10:48:57
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https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/football/blog/2013/oct/29/nigeria-toughest-league-win-away
Those Nigerians had some shocking mental attitude.
Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4210 - 07/04/2017 11:26:44
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Replying To hill16no1man: "Hahahahahaha
It's like the pot calling the kettle black!
you say your right so you can't be wrong but yet I ask for one actual physical home advantage fact and you cannot show me one?
Your talk about vacination is funny because you are basing your whole reason for home advantage on a conspiracy theory that the ref favours the home team and then give out about the conspiracy theory of the vacination hahahaha" Physical home advantage fact? How about JoeSoap's data about Donegal's recent home record.
Home: Played: 31
W-D-L: 17-7-7
Win %: 55%
Away: Played: 32
W-D-L: 12-1-19
Win %: 38%
Tacaí Liatroma (Leitrim) - Posts: 1029 - 11/04/2017 19:22:46
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Replying To Whammo86: "https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/football/blog/2013/oct/29/nigeria-toughest-league-win-away
Those Nigerians had some shocking mental attitude." I read that before! The team in 7th got 55 points at home out a possible 57, and 0 points away out a possible 57.
Tacaí Liatroma (Leitrim) - Posts: 1029 - 11/04/2017 19:24:12
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Replying To JoeSoap: "Can't really speak for other counties but I've done a bit of research on Donegal myself because of what felt like a terrible record in Letterkenny that we have. I went back to 2009 because that's as far as Wiki had a breakdown of matches and venues! I only included the standard fixtures, so no semis or finals. So since 2009, Donegal have played 63 matches in the league:
At home
Played: 31
Win: 17
Loss: 7
Draw: 7
Win %: 55%
Away:
Played: 32
Win: 12
Loss: 19
Draw: 1
Win %: 38%
So on the face of it, we have a much better record at home than we do away. Coupled with that, you can see we're much more likely to actually lose away from home whereas we have a higher number of draws within the county. The interesting bit for Donegal is when you look at the different "home" matches we actually play.
Ballybofey
Played: 13
Win: 10
Loss: 1
Draw: 2
Win %: 77%
Ballyshannon
Played: 8
Win: 6
Loss: 1
Draw: 1
Win %: 75%
Letterkenny:
Played: 8
Win: 1
Loss: 5
Draw: 2
Win %: 13%
Our sole win in Letterkenny came against Monaghan in 2014. We have a fantastic record in Ballyshannon with our loss there coming against the Dubs in 2009. And our loss in Ballybofey came in 2010 against Down.
So overall for Donegal, I'd say home advantage is a huge plus for us, as long as it's not Letterkenny. The record there is pretty shocking." Fascinating stuff. Good work. By the way, when were the Letterkenny games? Were they consecutive or they were mixed among the other games?
Tacaí Liatroma (Leitrim) - Posts: 1029 - 11/04/2017 19:25:16
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Replying To CastleBravo: " Replying To KYTotalFootball: "So every team sport in the world emphasises and rewards good play with home advantage (see Champions League, American Sports in particular) yet somehow in the GAA* it magically doesn't exist * if we ignore Davy Fits refusal to play Tipp in Thurles in the League Semi Final on Sunday week or Derek McGrath last year's Munster Final link" How does the Champions league reward a team with home advantage? Aside from the final venue determined years in advance (generally at a non club stadium) every tie is home and away 2 legs, whether it be Barcelona vs. Bayern in a semi final, or teams from the Faroes and Andorra playing each other in the first qualifier round in June."
Home advantage is particularly more important in soccer. A home team's fans demand more attacking football, and soccer fans tend to be more, let us say, feisty than GAA fans, leading to more intimidation of the opposition and of the referee.
Tacaí Liatroma (Leitrim) - Posts: 1029 - 11/04/2017 19:29:53
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Replying To Tacaí Liatroma: "Physical home advantage fact? How about JoeSoap's data about Donegal's recent home record.
Home: Played: 31
W-D-L: 17-7-7
Win %: 55%
Away: Played: 32
W-D-L: 12-1-19
Win %: 38%" Haha all that shows is they won games at home again because they believe they can not because they physically had an advantage over the other team, they could easily have won them games Of they had the same mindset in the other teams grounds.
hill16no1man (Dublin) - Posts: 12665 - 11/04/2017 21:17:07
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Donegal and Derry had to travel all the way to Armagh yesterday for the u-21 game because both sides could not agree to toss for home advantage. This meant the crowd at the game was smaller than if it was played in either home venue. Surely players would love to play in front of a bigger crowd, and if you manage to win a title in your opponents ground then it is even sweeter.
Soma (UK) - Posts: 2630 - 11/04/2017 21:42:17
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