The GAAmbler: It's hard to beat experience

November 26, 2015

Kilcoo's Ryan Johnston with Crossmaglen Rangers' Paul McKeown.
©INPHO/Presseye/William Cherry.

As more finals are up for decision around the country, what sticks out above all this weekend is that bookies love siding with experience, and who would blame them?

Crossmaglen have never lost an Ulster final and Nemo have countless county and Munster titles to their name. This week we take a look to see if there is any value in betting against the aristocrats, or should you stick to the tried and tested.

Crossmaglen (4/9) and Scotstown (11/4) lock horns in an intriguing contest at the Athletic Grounds. Both clubs have a rich history in this competition and it should be an exciting contest. Cross of course are known for their attacking kick passing game and Scotstown play a very similar brand, with both sides often refusing to use an extra sweeper.

Interestingly when Mattie Mc Gleenen was interviewed during the week he stated that Scotstown would not be making adjustments for the Armagh champs, saying "We only know one way of playing football and that's attacking and we're not going to change that for this Sunday". Although this is a commendable move, I believe it will ultimately be their downfall.

There is no doubt that Scotstown will give Crossmaglen a good game and get a decent amount of scores themselves. But Cross are the masters of 15 on 15 football and Scotstown's at times leaky defence, which conceded two goals last day out will most likely be overrun by the more experienced Armagh side. Both teams have been regularly scoring goals this season, Cross have 13 goals in 7 games were as Scotstown have 10 goals in the same amount of games. The way both teams are set up will in my opinion lead to a large number of goal chances. Like last week over 1.5 total match goals is the main bet for this game.

Loughinisland have blazed a significant trail through the Ulster intermediate championship so far, winning by an average of 8 points a game. This is incredibly impressive considering the quality of teams they have met so far. They now face Bundoran who have been quite impressive also. They overcame a powerful Glenavy side in the semi-final and have some useful players to trouble Loughinisland. Former Donegal panellist Ciaran McCaughey has been brilliant so far and they will look to him to stifle Dan Gordon.

Loughinisland were missing target man Gareth Johnston in the previous round, and with "Magic" now fit he should help ensure the down men lift the ulster intermediate crown for the first time. Manager Jerome Johnston has attempted to play down the hype by claiming that the Down men are massive underdogs, but considering Loughinisland's winning margins thus far the -3 handicap offered by PP at 6/5 seems like a more than a decent bet.

The final game of interest this week is between Nemo Rangers and surprise package Clonmel Commercials. Much has been made of Nemo's run to the Munster final, with past county stars James Masters and Tomas O'Se coming to the fore once again. Although Clonmel will really fancy upsetting the odds and with a very large county contingent, as well as a number of under 21's from this year All-Ireland finalists they have reason for optimism.

Paddy Power has Nemo best priced at (1/2) and Boyles have Clonmel at (9/4). Both sides have considerable attacking threats and Clonmel in particular have been scoring goals for fun, having put away 13 goals in 6 games during the Tipp championship. I really think this game will be a tight one and although I will give Nemo a tentative nod for the victory, the 6/4 offered by Ladbrokes for Commercials to score first goal looks especially juicy.

Recommended bets:

- Crossmaglen/Scotstown over 1.5 goals (NAP)

- Crossmaglen (4/9) Loughinisland 2/5 double

- Clonmel Commercials to score the first goal 6/4

Follow @TheGAAmbler1 on twitter for further tips and analysis


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