The GAAmbler: Aussies to make their mark again

November 19, 2015

Australia manager Alastair Clarkson and assistant Tadhg Kennelly.
©INPHO/James Crombie.

A mixed bag with our selections last week, as we managed to get our NAP up as both Scotstown (4/9) and Loughinisland (8/13) prevailed. But our other two singles weren't as successful. Maybe it wasn't the cleverest idea to back against the mighty Crossmaglen, who delivered a performance that has reminded everyone of their experience and quality.

As the Christmas countdown is well under way, we now enter the very short window in the football calendar where there is a slowdown of football fixtures. Fortunately to compensate for this we host the men from the land Down Under, who are welcomed back to Dublin for the first time since the underwhelming indigenous experiment in 2013.

The matchup between the best Gaelic and Australian footballers has always guaranteed controversy whether it is positive or negative, and the bookies have made the Aussies firm (1/2 Boylesports) favourites after their somewhat misleading 56-46 victory over the Irish (2/1 bet365) in 2014. I say misleading as ultimately the game was over at half time with the Aussies leading 35-7.

Tadhg Kennelly who's now part of the Aussie management team has claimed that this year's team is even better saying that "this really is a genuine dream team; It's the best of the best. These players are as good as it gets in our country." Ireland on the other hand has named a squad minus the services of some previous stalwarts, most notably last year's captain and vice-captain Michael Murphy and Aidan Walsh.

It may not be a popular opinion, but I haven't seen anything to suggest that the result will be any different this time around. As the Australians policy of selecting the best of the best as well as participating in an extended training camp in America, has ensured that they will be coming to Ireland extremely well prepared. There are two bets which are of particular interest here; the first is Australia to be winning at half time. The Australians were brilliant in how quickly they were able to impose their physical strength on Ireland from the start last year, which gave them a 22-4 lead at the end of the first quarter.  Its best priced at 4/6 with Boylesports. My second pick is Australia to be winning at half time and full time at 1/1 again with Boylesports. I think that the 1\2 price for the Australian victory is a bit too short, and as I expect a dominant Aussie performance a HT/FT win at even money is more appealing.

Another big game this weekend brings together 2013 All-Ireland club finalists Castlebar Mitchells and 2014 All Ireland club champions Corofin. There is history between the two sides as Castlebar are the last team to beat Corofin, back in the 2013 Connacht club final on a score line of 2-8 to 1-10. The two teams are quite similar in that they have a well-structured defence with a potent inside forward line that have score a lot of goals. Castlebar scored 16-73 in their six championship games in Mayo this season and they also hit the net three times in their semi-final against the Roscommon champions.

Corofin were incredibly Impressive in winning the Andy Merrigan cup last year, and seem to have finally hit form again last day out in defeating St. Marys of Sligo 4-14 to 2-6. Like Castlebar they have an impressive goal scoring record, which leads me to believe that there is a high possibly of goals when the two teams meet on Sunday.

At the time of writing no total goals markets have yet been priced up with the bookmakers. But as the game has been included on Paddy Powers live betting schedule; they have assured me that an over 1.5 goals market will be made available closer to the throw in. The price of over 1.5 goals will likely be in and around even money mark. If this is the case it would be a tasty price, considering the two teams goal scoring records and with the weather due to improve over the weekend.

Recommended bets:

(NAP) Australia to be winning at half time@ 4/6 with Boylesports

Australia to be winning at half time and full time @ 1/1 with Boylesports

Castlebar/Corofin total goals over 1.5 - Price will available closer to throw in

Follow @TheGAAmbler1 on twitter for further tips and analysis


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